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The Role of Contagion and Integration in Risk Management Measures

Author

Listed:
  • Jaime de Jesus Filho
  • Paulo Matos
  • Ronald Fonseca

Abstract

We add to the discussion on risk management by proposing an innovative measure of Value at Risk (VaR), which relaxes some statistical assumptions. We provide a VaR based on time-varying moments of the best-fitting probability distribution function. This risk measure can capture the cross-effects associated with contagion and integration through the estimation of a multivariate autoregressive moving average–generalized autoregressive heteroskedasticity (ARMA–GARCH). We implement an empirical exercise to account for the risk management of some of the main worldwide financial sector indices of G20 economies. According to Basel back-testing and back-testing that deals with the frequency and conditionality of losses exceeding VaR, this innovative VaR seems to perform better than Basel VaR.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaime de Jesus Filho & Paulo Matos & Ronald Fonseca, 2023. "The Role of Contagion and Integration in Risk Management Measures," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 24(5), pages 1111-1128, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:24:y:2023:i:5:p:1111-1128
    DOI: 10.1177/0972150920933857
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    References listed on IDEAS

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