IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v47y2026i2p103-131.html

The Impact of Supply and Demand Driven Oil Price Uncertainty on the Cost of Bank Loans

Author

Listed:
  • Theodora Bermpei
  • Athanasios Triantafyllou

Abstract

We study the effect of supply and demand-induced oil price uncertainty on the cost of debt for a sample of US loans credited during the 1990 to 2019 period. We estimate oil price uncertainty following Jurado et al.’s study, whereby oil price uncertainty is captured by forecasting the unpredictable fluctuations of oil prices. Interestingly, our findings reveal that oil price uncertainty induced by supply shocks increases cost of credit, while oil price uncertainty driven by demand shocks decreases the cost of bank loans. In further analysis, the positive association between supply induced oil price uncertainty and interest loan spread is more pronounced for major users of oil, while the negative effect of demand driven oil price uncertainty on the cost of bank loans is stronger for firms that belong to industries that produce oil. Overall, our findings feed into the emerging discussion of the differentiating effects of oil price uncertainty on micro-level outcomes and provide useful implications for both bankers and borrowing firms. JEL Classification: G20 - Financial Institutions and Services: General; Q41 - Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices; Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy

Suggested Citation

  • Theodora Bermpei & Athanasios Triantafyllou, 2026. "The Impact of Supply and Demand Driven Oil Price Uncertainty on the Cost of Bank Loans," The Energy Journal, , vol. 47(2), pages 103-131, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:47:y:2026:i:2:p:103-131
    DOI: 10.1177/01956574251366201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01956574251366201
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/01956574251366201?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yin-Siang Huang & Iftekhar Hasan & Ying-Chen Huang & Chih-Yung Lin, 2021. "Political Uncertainty and Bank Loan Contracts: Does Government Quality Matter?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 157-185, December.
    2. Kilian, Lutz, 2019. "Measuring global real economic activity: Do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 106-110.
    3. Hasan, Iftekhar & Hoi, Chun Keung (Stan) & Wu, Qiang & Zhang, Hao, 2014. "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder: The effect of corporate tax avoidance on the cost of bank loans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 109-130.
    4. Kumar, Abhishek & Mallick, Sushanta, 2024. "Oil price dynamics in times of uncertainty: Revisiting the role of demand and supply shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Hasan, Iftekhar & Hoi, Chun Keung (Stan) & Wu, Qiang & Zhang, Hao, 2014. "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder: The effect of corporate tax avoidance on the cost of bank loans," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 109-130.
    6. Zheng, Yan & Zhou, Min & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on carbon allowance price: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    7. Hasan, Iftekhar & Hoi, Chun Keung & Wu, Qiang & Zhang, Hao, 2017. "Social Capital and Debt Contracting: Evidence from Bank Loans and Public Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 1017-1047, June.
    8. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    9. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    10. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
    11. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2651-2663.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. T. Bermpei & A. Triantafyllou, 2026. "The impact of supply and demand driven oil price uncertainty on the cost of bank loans," Post-Print hal-05535567, HAL.
    2. Zeina Alsalman, 2023. "Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 479-511, July.
    3. Youshu Li & Junjie Guo, 2022. "The asymmetric impacts of oil price and shocks on inflation in BRICS: a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 1377-1395, March.
    4. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Simon Wolfe, 2024. "Does IRS Monitoring Matter for the Cost of Bank Loans?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 153-188, June.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Aharon, David Y. & Azman Aziz, Mukhriz Izraf & Kallir, Ido, 2023. "Oil price shocks and inflation: A cross-national examination in the ASEAN5+3 countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Chia-Ying Chan & Iftekhar Hasan & Chih-Yung Lin, 2021. "Agency cost of CEO perquisites in bank loan contracts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1221-1258, May.
    8. Bermpei, Theodora & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2025. "Supply and Demand shocks: the short-term and long-term drivers of oil price uncertainty," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    9. Yuliya Lovcha & Alejandro Perez-Laborda, 2017. "Structural shocks and dynamic elasticities in a long memory model of the US gasoline retail market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 405-422, September.
    10. Duong, Huu Nhan & Khalifa, Mariem & Sheikhbahaei, Ali & Sualihu, Mohammed Aminu, 2024. "Corporate noncompliance: Do corporate violations affect bank loan contracting?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    11. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "Does drawing down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve help stabilize oil prices?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 673-691, September.
    12. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2019. "The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2015. "What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1013-1028, November.
    14. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Understanding the estimation of oil demand and oil supply elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    15. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joëts & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," Working Papers hal-04141574, HAL.
    16. Francis, Bill & Hasan, Iftekhar & Liu, Liuling & Wu, Qiang & Zhao, Yijiang, 2021. "Financial analysts' career concerns and the cost of private debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    18. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    19. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    20. Po-Hsin Ho & Chia-Wei Huang & Chih-Yung Lin & Ju-Fang Yen, 2026. "Risk attitude homophily and bank loan contracting," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 189-228, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:47:y:2026:i:2:p:103-131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.