IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v47y2026i1p243-260.html

Fat Tails in German Natural Gas Prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Bjarne Sæther
  • Anne Neumann

Abstract

In this paper, we use a tail index estimator to examine how the likelihood of extreme natural gas prices in the German market has evolved between 2011 and 2024. After controlling for the extraordinary supply disruptions associated with the 2022 energy crisis, we find no evidence of a sustained increase in the fatness of price tails over time. While the crisis period clearly heightened the probability of extreme price outcomes, this effect appears to be transient rather than indicative of a permanent structural change. Furthermore, the influence of natural gas demand on tail fatness is less clear-cut once the crisis conditions are accounted for, with storage levels emerging as a key factor in mitigating extreme price risks. Overall, our results suggest that the German natural gas market, despite facing significant short-term shocks, does not exhibit a long-term trend toward fatter tails in its price distributions. JEL Classification: C13 - Estimation: General, C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General, Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources, Q47 - Energy Forecasting, G11 - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions, L16 - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics: Industrial Structure and Structural Change; Industrial Price Indices

Suggested Citation

  • Bjarne Sæther & Anne Neumann, 2026. "Fat Tails in German Natural Gas Prices?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 47(1), pages 243-260, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:47:y:2026:i:1:p:243-260
    DOI: 10.1177/01956574251371648
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/01956574251371648
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/01956574251371648?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gong, Xiao-Li & Zhao, Min & Wu, Zhuo-Cheng & Jia, Kai-Wen & Xiong, Xiong, 2023. "Research on tail risk contagion in international energy markets—The quantile time-frequency volatility spillover perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    2. Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Szafranek, Karol & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "Are European natural gas markets connected? A time-varying spillovers analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Youtao Xiang & Sumuya Borjigin, 2024. "High–low volatility spillover network between economic policy uncertainty and commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(8), pages 1295-1319, August.
    2. Bouteska, Ahmed & Ha, Le Thanh & Bhuiyan, Faruk & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2024. "Contagion between investor sentiment and green bonds in China during the global uncertainties," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 469-484.
    3. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arfaoui, Nadia, 2023. "Exploring downside risk dependence across energy markets: Electricity, conventional energy, carbon, and clean energy during episodes of market crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    4. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Ye, Jing, 2024. "The nexus between ReFi, carbon, fossil energy, and clean energy assets: Quantile time–frequency connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Wang, Xinya & Rong, Xueyun & Yin, Lei, 2024. "Discerning the impact of global geopolitical risks on China's energy futures market spillovers: Evidence from higher-order moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    6. Liu, Yanqiong & Lu, Jinjin & Shi, Fengyuan, 2023. "Spillover relationship between different oil shocks and high- and low-carbon assets: An analysis based on time-frequency spillover effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    7. Mensi, Walid & Gök, Remzi & Gemici, Eray & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2025. "Tail risk contagion and connectedness between crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, precious metals, and international stock markets," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    8. Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2024. "Energy shocks in the Euro area: Disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    9. Liu, Jian & Chen, Chaoqiang & Mao, Xiaodan, 2025. "Risk spillover effect and portfolio strategy between Chinese commodity futures market and international green finance market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Su, Xianfang & Zhao, Yachao, 2023. "What has the strongest connectedness with clean energy? Technology, substitutes, or raw materials," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Adeabah, David & Pham, Thu Phuong, 2025. "Asymmetric tail risk spillover and co-movement between climate risk and the international energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    12. Wang, Xinya & Vigne, Samuel A. & Huang, Shupei, 2025. "The impact of uncertainties on contagions in energy market risk networks: Evidence from synthesizing multiple-order moments and multiple time horizons," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    13. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Xia, Xiqiang & Dogan, Eyup, 2025. "Corrigendum to “Understanding the effects of artificial intelligence on energy transition: The moderating role of Paris Agreement” [Energy Economics Volume 131, March 2024, 107388]," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    14. Boeck, Maximilian & Zörner, Thomas O., 2025. "Natural gas prices, inflation expectations, and the pass-through to euro area inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Ren, Xiaohang & Li, Jingyao & Duan, Kun & Parhi, Mamata, 2025. "Cross-category spillovers of uncertainties in energy transition: Insights from a full-distributional framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    16. Hudák, Milan & Čermáková, Klára & Kadeřábková, Božena & Popescu, Irina Alina & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2026. "From fragmentation to integration: Gas market convergence in Central and Eastern Europe in the aftermath of the EU energy crisis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    17. Amine Ben Amar & Boutaina Lmasrar & Mondher Bouattour, 2025. "Are European and U.S. natural gas futures markets integrated? Insights from network-connectedness and cross-herding analysis," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 106-116.
    18. Mensi, Walid & Gubareva, Mariya & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Quantile connectedness and network among Green bonds, Renewable Energy, and G7 sustainability markets," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    19. Bhattacherjee, Purba & Mishra, Sibanjan & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Extreme time-frequency connectedness across U.S. sector stock and commodity futures markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 1176-1197.
    20. Nikou, Vasilis, 2025. "From exit to exposure: Gas import shocks and macroeconomic asymmetries in the wake of Europe's coal phaseout," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:47:y:2026:i:1:p:243-260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.