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Rooftop Solar PV, Coal Plant Inflexibility and the Minimum Load Problem

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  • Paul Simshauser
  • Phillip Wild

Abstract

Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) has amongst the highest take-up rates of rooftop solar PV in the world. As with California, this has produced a distinctive load shape termed the “duck curve.†The Queensland version is being principally driven by non-scheduled (i.e., uncontrolled) rooftop solar PV. When combined with inflexible coal plant, it leads to a “minimum load problem.†In this article, we examine the feasibility of dispatch with ever-expanding rooftop solar PV resources in the NEM’s Queensland region and minimal demand elasticity. We find episodes of intractable dispatch throughout the year with rising intensity in the winter and spring months. Furthermore, we find no ability to “export your way out of the problem†via larger interstate interconnectors because the same problem is emerging in the adjacent region at the same time. Resolution ultimately requires inflexible coal plant exit, and entry of flexible plant. JEL Classification: D25, D80, G32, L51, Q41

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Simshauser & Phillip Wild, 2025. "Rooftop Solar PV, Coal Plant Inflexibility and the Minimum Load Problem," The Energy Journal, , vol. 46(1), pages 93-118, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:46:y:2025:i:1:p:93-118
    DOI: 10.1177/01956574241283732
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver, Matthew E. & Chapman, Oliver & Grijalva, Santiago & Matisoff, Daniel C. & Ramadhani, Maghfira & West, Amanda, 2026. "Managing zero-marginal-cost, intermittent renewable energy: A survey of the engineering, economic, and policy challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 226(PC).
    2. Simshauser, P. & Gilmore, J., 2025. "The Counterfactual Scenario: Are Renewables Cheaper?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2626, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    JEL classification:

    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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