IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v17y1996i2p43-57.html

Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests

Author

Listed:
  • S. Gürcan Gülen

Abstract

Were the energy shocks of the 1970s engineered by an effective cartel acting to share the market by controlling output and influencing oil prices? If OPEC was an effective cartel sharing the market among its members, there would be a long run relationship between each member's production and total OPEC output. One would also expect OPECs production to significantly affect the price of oil. These implications of cartel behavior are tested via cointegration and causality tests. The likely effects of regime changes are dealt with using techniques developed by Perron (1989). There is evidence of output coordination among members of the organization, especially in the output rationing era (1982-1993). This is also the only period in which the causality from OPEC production to the price of oil is statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Gürcan Gülen, 1996. "Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests," The Energy Journal, , vol. 17(2), pages 43-57, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:17:y:1996:i:2:p:43-57
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No2-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No2-3
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No2-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guilkey, David K & Salemi, Michael K, 1982. "Small Sample Properties of Three Tests for Granger-Causal Ordering in a Bivariate Stochastic System," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 668-680, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Satya Paul & Colm Kearney & Kabir Chowdhury, 1997. "Inflation and economic growth: a multi-country empirical analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 1387-1401.
    2. Green, Richard K., 2002. "Stock prices and house prices in California: new evidence of a wealth effect?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 775-783, November.
    3. Hector O. Zapata & José M. Gil, 1999. "Cointegration and causality in international agricultural economics research," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 20(1), pages 1-9, January.
    4. Mongkolporn, Veerasak & Yin, Xiangkang, 2005. "How does the entry of new firms change demand? An empirical estimation for a Thai telecommunications company," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 688-703, August.
    5. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2005. "Becker vs. Easterlin. Education, Fertility and Growth in France after World War II," Working Papers 05-03, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    6. N M Odhiambo, 2008. "Financial Development in Kenya: a Dynamic Test of the Finance-led Growth Hypothesis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(2), pages 21-36, September.
    7. Aaltonen, J. & Östermark, R., 1997. "A rolling test of granger causality between the Finnish and Japanese security markets," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 635-642, December.
    8. Cheng, Benjamin S. & Lai, Tin Wei, 1997. "An investigation of co-integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 435-444, October.
    9. Sarker, Rakhal, "undated". "Testing Causality in Economics: A Review," Department of Agricultural Economics and Business 258629, University of Guelph.
    10. Salih Gurcan Gulen, 1996. "Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 318., Boston College Department of Economics.
    11. Cheng, Benjamin S., 1999. "Beyond the purchasing power parity: testing for cointegration and causality between exchange rates, prices, and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 911-924, December.
    12. Roelf Bult, Jan & Leeflang, Peter S. H. & Wittink, Dick R., 1997. "The relative performance of bivariate causality tests in small samples," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 450-464, March.
    13. Michael A. Conte & Ali F. Darrat, 1993. "Testing Alternative Views Of Government Budgeting," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(1), pages 19-40, September.
    14. Rajen Mookerjee, 1997. "Export volume, exchange rates and global economic growth: the Indian experience," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(7), pages 425-429.
    15. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mehmet Balcilar & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Seyi Saint Akadiri, 2023. "Is causality between globalization and energy consumption bidirectional or unidirectional in top and bottom globalized economies?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1939-1964, April.
    16. Zapata, Hector O. & Hudson, Michael A. & Garcia, Philip, 1988. "Identifying Causal Relationships Between Nonstationary Stochastic Processes: An Examination Of Alternative Approaches In Small Samples," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, December.
    17. Sapp, Stephen, 2004. "Are all Central Bank interventions created equal? An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 443-474, March.
    18. Teppo Martikainen & Vesa Puttonen, 1996. "Sequential information arrival in the Finnish stock index derivatives markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 207-217.
    19. Knapp, Tom & Mookerjee, Rajen, 1996. "Population growth and global CO2 emissions : A secular perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 31-37, January.
    20. Paul W. Bauer, 1990. "A reexamination of the relationship between capacity utilization and inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 26(Q III), pages 2-12.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:17:y:1996:i:2:p:43-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.