IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rse/wpaper/v1y2011i2p53-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The demographic challenge on pension systems: empirical results from Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Cinzia Di Palo

    (Department of Economics, University of Cassino, Italy)

Abstract

Population ageing in Italy is likely to accelerate in the next four decades. Thus, the proportion of the population over 65 years old is projected to strongly increase shifting from 20 per cent in 2010 to 32 per cent in year 2060 (Demographic Projections EUROPOP2010, released in April 2011 by Eurostat). Declining mortality trends, combined with low fertility rates and the approaching to retirement of the baby-boom generations, are, and major will be in the next decades, the socio-economic challenge to provide pension income to ageing population. The effects of demographic changes on the Italian pension system are assessed based on projections provided by the Working Group on Ageing Population (AWG) of the Economic Policy Committee. Under used demographic and economic assumptions, AWG projections confirm the demographic pressure on the Italian pension system, which could reveal itself not sustainable in the long run as it relies exclusively on the pay-as-you-go scheme. Reforms aimed at containing the Italian pension expenditure have already been adopted, and further measures are planned for forthcoming years. Anyway, the pension system sustainability cannot be achieved if pension reforms continue to be based on the goodness of forecasting and do not move in the direction of the logical sustainability, namely towards a sustainability founded on evaluation rules of benefits and contributions linked to the effective situation of the pension system.

Suggested Citation

  • Cinzia Di Palo, 2011. "The demographic challenge on pension systems: empirical results from Italy," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 1(2), pages 53-62, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rse:wpaper:v:1:y:2011:i:2:p:53-62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://reaser.eu/RePec/rse/wpaper/9Rev2_7_diPalo.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Holzmann & Edward Palmer, 2006. "Pension Reform : Issues and Prospects for Non-Financial Defined Contribution Schemes," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6983, December.
    2. Palmer, Edward, 2000. "The Swedish pension reform model : framework and issues," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 23086, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patrik Marier, 2017. "The politics of policy adoption: a saga on the difficulties of enacting policy diffusion or transfer across industrialized countries," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 50(3), pages 427-448, September.
    2. Qi, Haodong & Helgertz, Jonas & Bengtsson, Tommy, 2018. "Do notional defined contribution schemes prolong working life? Evidence from the 1994 Swedish pension reform," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 250-267.
    3. Markus Knell, 2013. "The Austrian System of Individual Pension Accounts – An Unfinished Symphony," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 47-62.
    4. Wang, Leran, 2021. "Fertility, Imperfect Labor Market, and Notional Defined Contribution Pension," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    5. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:95:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Martin Werding, 2003. "After Another Decade of Reform: Do Pension Systems in Europe Converge?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(1), pages 11-16, October.
    7. John B. Williamson, 2001. "Future Prospects for Notional Defined Contribution Schemes," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(4), pages 19-24, October.
    8. Calvo, Esteban & Williamson, John B., 2006. "Old-Age Pension Reform and Modernization Pathways: Lessons for China from Latin America," MPRA Paper 4872, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    9. Barbara Berkel & Axel Börsch-Supan, 2004. "Pension Reform in Germany: The Impact on Retirement Decisions," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 393-421, September.
    10. Gustafsson, Johan & Holmberg, Johan, 2022. "Permanent and transitory earnings dynamics and lifetime income inequality in Sweden," Umeå Economic Studies 1005, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    11. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "From Traditional DB to Notional DC Systems," MEA discussion paper series 04063, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    12. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2007. "Rational Pension Reform," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-25, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    13. Alan J. Auerbach & Ronald Lee, 2009. "Notional Defined Contribution Pension Systems in a Stochastic Context: Design and Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 43-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. John B. Williamson & Matthew Williams, 2005. "Notional Defined Contribution Accounts," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 485-506, April.
    15. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Härtl, Klaus & Leite, Duarte Nuno & Ludwig, Alexander, 2018. "Endogenous Retirement Behavior of Heterogeneous Households Under Pension Reforms," MEA discussion paper series 201804, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    16. Nicos Christodoulakis, 2018. "Sustainability and fairness still missing in the Greek social insurance system," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 897-906, December.
    17. Szüle, Borbála, 2013. "Demográfiai hatások és implicit hozamok kapcsolata a nyugdíjrendszerekben [The relationship of demographic effects and implicit returns in pension systems]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 703-721.
    18. Andrea Brandolini & Francesca Carta & Francesco D'Amuri, 2016. "A Feasible Unemployment-Based Shock Absorber for the Euro Area," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 1123-1141, September.
    19. Bruszas, Sandy & Kaschützke, Barbara & Maurer, Raimond & Siegelin, Ivonne, 2018. "Unisex pricing of German participating life annuities—Boon or bane for customer and insurance company?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 230-245.
    20. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2007. "Rational pension reform," Papers 07-25, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    21. Agnieszka Chlon-Dominczak & Agnieszka Kaminska & Iga Magda, 2013. "Women as a Potential of the European Labour Force," IBS Policy Papers 1/2013, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population ageing; demographic changes; pension systems; logical sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rse:wpaper:v:1:y:2011:i:2:p:53-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Manuela Epure (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pgsaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.