IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rre/publsh/v21y1991i3p235-248.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Integrating Money Into Regional Models Of Leading Indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Paul J. Kozlowski

    (University of Toledo)

Abstract

Given the role of monetary changes in explaining business cycles, a challenge for regional analysts is to integrate monetary processes into leading indicator models. This paper examines economic processes imbedded in regional models and analyzes changes in forecasting performance when a national monetary indicator is integrated into these models. Performance of the models, with and without the monetary variable, is examined with respect to turning points, volatility, false signals, and quantitative forecasts. The results show that integrating a national monetary indicator into the regional models of leading indicators is conceptually sound as well as empirically promising, and may contribute to the information content imbedded in this class of models.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul J. Kozlowski, 1991. "Integrating Money Into Regional Models Of Leading Indicators," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 21(3), pages 235-248, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v21:y:1991:i:3:p:235-248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journal.srsa.org/ojs/index.php/RRS/article/view/21.3.2/pdf/
    File Function: To View On Journal Page
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://journal.srsa.org/ojs/index.php/RRS/article/download/21.3.2/544
    File Function: To Download Article
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: A Review of Theories and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 523-580, June.
    2. Kozlowski, Paul J., 1989. "Forecasting With Leading Indicators: Regional Economic Sense or Nonsense," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-22.
    3. Charles T. Carlstrom & Edward N. Gamber, 1989. "Why we don't know whether money causes output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 25(Q III), pages 27-39.
    4. Koch, Paul D & Rasche, Robert H, 1988. "An Examination of the Commerce Department Leading-Indicator Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 6(2), pages 167-187, April.
    5. Abdullah, Dewan A & Rangazas, Peter C, 1988. "Money and the Business Cycle: Another Look," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 680-685, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Rodriguez-Fuentes & Sheila Dow, 2003. "EMU and the Regional Impact of Monetary Policy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 969-980.
    2. Paul J. Kozlowski, 1995. "Money And Interest Rates As Predictors Of Regional Economic Activity," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 25(2), pages 143-157, Fall.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. van Schaik, A.B.T.M. & Mulder, R.J., 1986. "On superimposed recurrent cycles," Research Memorandum FEW 232, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Keen Meng Choy & Hwee Kwan Chow, 2004. "Forecasting the Global Electronics Cycle with Leading Indicators: A VAR Approach," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 223, Econometric Society.
    4. Mr. Thomas Helbling & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2003. "Are they All in the Same Boat? the 2000-2001 Growth Slowdown and the G-7 Business Cycle Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2003/046, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Bordo, Michael D., 1986. "Explorations in monetary history: A survey of the literature," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 339-415, October.
    6. Singh, Tarlok, 2014. "On the regime-switching and asymmetric dynamics of economic growth in the OECD countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 169-192.
    7. Jian Yang & R. Brian Balyeat & David J. Leatham, 2005. "Futures Trading Activity and Commodity Cash Price Volatility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1‐2), pages 297-323, January.
    8. Jian Yang, 2005. "Government bond market linkages: evidence from Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 599-610.
    9. Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2015. "From real business cycle and new Keynesian to DSGE Macroeconomics: facts and models in the emergence of a consensus," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_05, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    10. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1996. "The role of international factors in the business cycle: A multi-country study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 85-104, February.
    11. Krug, Sebastian, 2015. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks "lean against the wind" to foster macrofinancial stability?," Economics Working Papers 2015-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    12. Mario Sportelli, 1995. "A Kolmogoroff generalized predator-prey model of Goodwin's growth cycle," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 35-64, February.
    13. Fagiolo G. & Roventini A., 2004. "Animal Spirits, Lumpy Investment, and the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 109, Society for Computational Economics.
    14. G. Fagiolo & A. Roventini, 2009. "On the Scientific Status of Economic Policy: A Tale of Alternative Paradigms," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 6.
    15. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2005. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 61-92, Springer.
    16. Kushankur Dey & Debasish Maitra, 2012. "Price discovery in Indian commodity futures market: an empirical exercise," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(1), pages 68-87.
    17. Conti, Claudio Ramos & Goldszmidt, Rafael & Vasconcelos, Flávio Carvalho de, 2020. "Firm characteristics and capabilities that enable superior performance in recessions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 553-561.
    18. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
    19. Issler, Joao Victor & Notini, Hilton & Rodrigues, Claudia & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2013. "Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(1), April.
    20. Krug, Sebastian, 2018. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks 'lean against the wind' to foster macro-financial stability?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-69.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v21:y:1991:i:3:p:235-248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tammy Leonard & Lei Zhang (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.srsa.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.