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Investigating Okun's Law in Nigeria through the Dynamic Model


  • Patrick Olufemi ADEYEYE
  • Anthonia T ODELEYE
  • Olufemi Adewale ALUKO


Unemployment is a persistent challenge for countries, especially the developing ones. Nigeria as a developing country faces a herculean task reducing the increasing spate of joblessness amongst her citizens. Okun’s law explains the relationship between unemployment and economic growth in an economy. This study therefore investigates Okun’s law in Nigeria between 1985 and 2015 through the dynamic model. The generalized method of moments estimation result reveals that that present and past output growth are negatively related to unemployment rate. However, only past output growth has a significant effect on unemployment rate. It also shows that past unemployment rate is significantly and positively associated with present unemployment rate. The Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test finds that there is no causality between unemployment and economic growth. This study presents evidence to partially support Okun’s law of inverse relationship between unemployment and output growth and suggests that promoting economic growth can be a policy tool for reducing unemployment rate in Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Olufemi ADEYEYE & Anthonia T ODELEYE & Olufemi Adewale ALUKO, 2018. "Investigating Okun's Law in Nigeria through the Dynamic Model," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(6), pages 39-46.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:9:y:2018:i:6:p:39-46
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v9i6.2003.g1546

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kitov, Ivan, 2011. "Okun’s law revisited. Is there structural unemployment in developed countries?," MPRA Paper 32135, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ball, Laurence & Jalles, João Tovar & Loungani, Prakash, 2015. "Do forecasters believe in Okun’s Law? An assessment of unemployment and output forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 176-184.
    3. Dimitris Christopoulos, 2004. "The relationship between output and unemployment: Evidence from Greek regions," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 611-620, July.
    4. J. Geldenhuys & M. Marinkov, 2007. "Robust Estimates of Okun's Coefficient for South Africa," Working Papers 55, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    5. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    6. Marie-Estelle Binet & François Facchini, 2013. "Okun's Law in the French Regions: A Cross-Regional Comparison," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00812549, HAL.
    7. Binet Marie-estelle & Francois Facchini, 2013. "Okun's law in the french regions: a cross-regional comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 420-433.
    8. Moosa, Imad A., 1999. "Cyclical output, cyclical unemployment, and Okun's coefficient A structural time series approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 293-304, September.
    9. Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-445, Oct.-Dec..
    10. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
    11. Sikiru Jimoh BABALOLA & Jimoh Olakunle SAKA & Idris Abiodun ADENUGA, 2013. "The Validity of Okun’s Law in Nigeria: A Difference Model Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(12), pages 1598-1608, December.
    12. Binet Marie-estelle & Francois Facchini, 2013. "Okun's law in the french regions: a cross-regional comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 420-433.
    13. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2010. "Okun’s law and the unemployment surprise of 2009," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar8.
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