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The Analysis of Local Budgets and Their Importance in the Fight Against the Economic Crisis Effects


  • Pelinescu, Elena

    () (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Anton, Lucian Vasile

    ("George Bacovia " University, Bacau)

  • Ionescu, Raluca

    ("George Bacovia " University, Bacau)

  • Tasca, Radu

    ("George Bacovia " University, Bacau)


The purpose of this analysis is to assess the financial and budgetary performance of an administration. Therefore, the performance of the central and local administration is strongly connected to the capacity of controlling the expenses and to ensure the resources to cover it. Taking into consideration the economic crisis conditions, this performance can easily be turned into counter-performance, especially when the central and local authorities do not act in due time. The fight against the effects of the financial crisis implies diminution in the pressure generated by the central and local financing need combined with the growth in the performance of the authorities’ management. This means achieving the financial sustainability of the central budget and the autonomy of the local community based on the budgetary equilibrium, so that the local budget deficits should not become global. Thus, the financially autonomous local communities have to efficiently plan and manage the local income and expense budgets. The Holt-Winters model should offer a good tool in order to achieve this task.

Suggested Citation

  • Pelinescu, Elena & Anton, Lucian Vasile & Ionescu, Raluca & Tasca, Radu, 2010. "The Analysis of Local Budgets and Their Importance in the Fight Against the Economic Crisis Effects," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 17-32.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:5:p:17-32

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Stefan Voigt & Lorenz Blume, 2012. "The economic effects of federalism and decentralization—a cross-country assessment," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 229-254, April.
    2. Ioan Radu & Viorel Lefter & Minodora Ursacescu & Cleopatra Sendroiu & Mihai Cioc, 2009. "Drafting Multiannual Local Budgets by Economic-Mathematical Modelling of the Evolution of Revenues," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 1(01(530)), pages 45-60, January.
    3. Alt, James E. & Lassen, David Dreyer, 2006. "Fiscal transparency, political parties, and debt in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1403-1439, August.
    4. Li, Zheng & Rose, John M. & Hensher, David A., 2010. "Forecasting automobile petrol demand in Australia: An evaluation of empirical models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 16-38, January.
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    More about this item


    state and local budget; efficiency; time series models;

    JEL classification:

    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes


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