The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off and the Significance of the Interest Rate: Some Evidence from United States Data from 1939 through 2007 - Il trade-off tra disoccupazione e inflazione e il ruolo del tasso di interesse: evidenze dagli USA nel periodo 1939-2007
This article argues that any empirical study on the inflation-unemployment trade-off requires the inclusion of the real interest rate in the model as any changes in the interest rate affects the capital used by the firms and thus leads to an effect on the level of employment in the economy. To test the validity of this argument, an empirical model is developed which includes the real interest rate as one of the explanatory variables in addition to inflation and real wages. The model is estimated using the annual time series data from the United States for the period from 1939 through 2007, which is available from Gordon (2009a) and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The estimated results indicate that the interest rate variable is indeed significant in explaining the Phillips Curve. - Questo articolo argomenta che qualunque studio empirico sul trade-off tra disoccupazione e inflazione richiede l’inclusione del tasso di interesse reale, poiché qualunque modifica nei tassi di interesse influenza la quantità di capitale utilizzato e, di conseguenza, i livelli occupazionali. Per verificare questa affermazione viene sviluppato un modello empirico che include anche il tasso d’interesse reale come variabile esplicativa, oltre a inflazione e salari. Tale modello viene stimato utilizzando dati annuali per gli USA nel periodo 1939-2007. I risultati evidenziano che la variabile tasso d’interesse è realmente significativa per spiegare la curva di Phillips.
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Volume (Year): 64 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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