IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/actuec/v73y1997i1p311-330.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

L’intégration des marchés émergents et la modélisation des rendements des actifs risqués

Author

Listed:
  • Boyer, Marcel

    (Chaire Jarislowsky, École polytechnique de Montréal)

  • Cherkaoui, Mouna

    (Groupe de recherche en économie internationale (GREI), Université Mohammed V, Rabat)

  • Ghysels, Eric

    (Department of Economics, Penn State)

Abstract

We want to test the ability of conditional and non-conditional CAPM models to explain the returns on emerging markets as a function of their integration with world markets. We use data on 16 developed markets and 10 emerging markets together with data on the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) before and after the reforms of 1990. We obtain the following results. First, the correlation coefficients between returns on developed and emerging markets are very small and sometimes negative. Second, the conditional APT (as well as the conditional CAPM) has a lower predictive ability for emerging markets than for developed markets. Third, Morocco financial markets are more integrated with world markets since the reforms (excess returns and non-conditional ß more in line with expectations) but the conditional APT performs rather poorly in explaining returns. This suggests that we are still far from having a good model of a structure as complex as the CSE. Nous cherchons à vérifier la capacité des modèles CAPM conditionnels et non conditionnels à expliquer les rendements sur les marchés émergents en fonction de leur intégration au marché mondial. Nous utilisons des données sur 16 marchés développés et 10 marchés en émergence et des données sur la bourse de Casablanca (BVC) avant et après les réformes financières de 1990. Nous obtenons les résultats suivants. (1) Les corrélations entre les rendements des marchés émergents et les rendements des marchés développés et du marché mondial sont très faibles et parfois négatives. (2) L’APT conditionnel (et le CAPM conditionnel) a une capacité prédictive plus faible pour les marchés émergents que pour les marchés développés. (3) Suite aux réformes financières de 1990, les marchés financiers marocains sont davantage intégrés au marché mondial (rendements excédentaires et ß non conditionnel plus conformes aux anticipations), mais l’APT conditionnel explique mal le rendement du marché marocain. Notre étude confirme que nous n’avons pas encore une modélisation très performante d’une structure aussi complexe que la BVC.

Suggested Citation

  • Boyer, Marcel & Cherkaoui, Mouna & Ghysels, Eric, 1997. "L’intégration des marchés émergents et la modélisation des rendements des actifs risqués," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 73(1), pages 311-330, mars-juin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:73:y:1997:i:1:p:311-330
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://id.erudit.org/iderudit/602230ar
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:4:p:1025-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Garcia, Rene & Ghysels, Eric, 1998. "Structural change and asset pricing in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 455-473, June.
    3. Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne, 1985. "International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 105-124, March.
    4. Bronsard, C. & Rosenwald, F. & Salvas-Bronsard, L., 1994. "Evidence on Corporate Private Debt Finance and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 9405, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    6. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Huizinga, Harry, 1995. "Barriers to portfolio investments in emerging stock markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 355-374, August.
    7. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    8. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    9. Morris Goldstein & Michael Mussa, 1993. "The integration of world capital markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 245-330.
    10. Auerbach, Alan, 1990. "The cost of capital and investment in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 410, The World Bank.
    11. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    12. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
    13. Bronsard, C. & Rosenwald, F. & Salvas-Bronsard, L., 1994. "Evidence on Corporate Private Debt Finance and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 9405, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    14. Eun, Cheol S & Janakiramanan, S, 1986. "A Model of International Asset Pricing with a Constraint on the Foreign Equity Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 897-914, September.
    15. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-349, July.
    16. Bansal, Ravi & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "No Arbitrage and Arbitrage Pricing: A New Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1231-1262, September.
    17. Bansal, Ravi & Hsieh, David A & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "A New Approach to International Arbitrage Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1719-1747, December.
    18. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
    19. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    20. Errunza, Vihang & Losq, Etienne & Padmanabhan, Prasad, 1992. "Tests of integration, mild segmentation and segmentation hypotheses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 949-972, September.
    21. Bronsard, C. & Salvas-Bronsard, L., 1984. "Constrained joint estimation of physical and financial factor demands," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1984030, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    22. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-566.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    2. Ghysels, E., 1995. "On Stable Factor Structurs in the Pricing of Risk," Cahiers de recherche 9525, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    4. Garcia, René, 1998. "Modèles d’évaluation des actifs financiers dans les marchés boursiers en émergence : identification des facteurs de risque et tests de changement structurel," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 74(3), pages 467-484, septembre.
    5. Chaieb, Ines & Errunza, Vihang, 2007. "International asset pricing under segmentation and PPP deviations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 543-578, November.
    6. Kumar Patro, Dilip, 2000. "Return behavior and pricing of American depositary receipts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 43-67, January.
    7. Barr, David G. & Priestley, Richard, 2004. "Expected returns, risk and the integration of international bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-97, February.
    8. Garg, Reetika & Dua, Pami, 2014. "Foreign Portfolio Investment Flows to India: Determinants and Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 16-28.
    9. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
    10. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2007. "Market integration and currency risk in Asian emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 98-117, January.
    11. Mateus, Tiago, 2004. "The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-266, June.
    12. Ito, Akitoshi, 1999. "Profits on technical trading rules and time-varying expected returns: evidence from Pacific-Basin equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 283-330, August.
    13. Garcia, Rene & Bonomo, Marco, 2001. "Tests of conditional asset pricing models in the Brazilian stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 71-90, February.
    14. Guesmi, Khaled & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "How strong is the global integration of emerging market regions? An empirical assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2517-2527.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    16. Rene M. Stulz, 1994. "International Portfolio Choice and Asset Pricing: An Integrative Survey," NBER Working Papers 4645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Campbell R. Harvey & Bruno Solnik & Guofu Zhou, 2002. "What Determines Expected International Asset Returns?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(2), pages 249-298, November.
    18. Li, Yuming & Zhong, Maosen, 2005. "Consumption habit and international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 579-601, March.
    19. Rua, António & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 84-92.
    20. Mika Vaihekoski, 1998. "Short-term returns and the predictability of Finnish stock returns," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 19-36, Spring.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:73:y:1997:i:1:p:311-330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Dostie (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/scseeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.