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Une maquette trimestrielle de l’économie française avec anticipations rationnelles et concurrence monopolistique

  • Laffargue, Jean-Pierre

    (CEPREMAP-PARIS I)

  • Malgrange, Pierre

    (CEPREMAP-CNRS)

  • Pujol, Thierry

    (DP-FMI)

Registered author(s):

    We present a small size dynamic macroeconomic model, numerically calibrated on quarterly French data, describing an economy working under imperfect competition on both labour and goods markets. The labour market exhibits a persistence effect relying on the insider-outsider theory. The closure of the model is obtained by household consumption (permanent income), by public spendings and by foreign trade. The long run properties of the model and the conditions for a unique rational expectations path in the neighbourhood of the steady state are successively analysed before computing and interpreting the dynamic multipliers associated with non anticipated transitory shocks. L’article présente une maquette dynamique, chiffrée sur données trimestrielles de l’économie française, décrivant une situation de concurrence monopolistique à la fois sur le marché des biens et sur celui du travail. Sur ce dernier existe un effet de persistance conforme à la théorie « insider-outsider ». Le modèle est bouclé par la prise en compte de la consommation des ménages (revenu permanent) ainsi que des dépenses publiques et des échanges extérieurs. Après avoir étudié les propriétés de long terme de la maquette et vérifié les conditions d’existence et d’unicité de trajectoires d’anticipations rationnelles au voisinage de la solution stationnaire, des multiplicateurs dynamiques correspondant à des chocs transitoires non anticipés sont calculés et interprétés.

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    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 68 (1992)
    Issue (Month): 1 (mars et juin)
    Pages: 225-261

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:68:y:1992:i:1:p:225-261
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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
    2. Lipton, David, et al, 1982. "Multiple Shooting in Rational Expectations Models [The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations]," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1329-33, September.
    3. West, Kenneth D, 1990. "The Sources of Fluctuations in Aggregate Inventories and GNP," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(4), pages 939-71, November.
    4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
    5. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    7. Robert E. Hall, 1981. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1986. "Wage Setting, Unemployment, and Insider-Outsider Relations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 235-39, May.
    9. Martin L. Weitzman, 1984. "The Simple Macroeconomics of Profit Sharing," Working papers 357, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    10. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    11. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1987. "Imperfect competition, unemployment and policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 417-426.
    12. Sneessens, Henri R., 1987. "Investment and the inflation-unemployment tradeoff in a macroeconomic rationing model with monopolistic competition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 781-808, April.
    13. Hart, Oliver, 1982. "A Model of Imperfect Competition with Keynesian Features," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 109-38, February.
    14. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
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