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Une maquette trimestrielle de l’économie française avec anticipations rationnelles et concurrence monopolistique

Author

Listed:
  • Laffargue, Jean-Pierre

    (CEPREMAP-PARIS I)

  • Malgrange, Pierre

    (CEPREMAP-CNRS)

  • Pujol, Thierry

    (DP-FMI)

Abstract

We present a small size dynamic macroeconomic model, numerically calibrated on quarterly French data, describing an economy working under imperfect competition on both labour and goods markets. The labour market exhibits a persistence effect relying on the insider-outsider theory. The closure of the model is obtained by household consumption (permanent income), by public spendings and by foreign trade. The long run properties of the model and the conditions for a unique rational expectations path in the neighbourhood of the steady state are successively analysed before computing and interpreting the dynamic multipliers associated with non anticipated transitory shocks. L’article présente une maquette dynamique, chiffrée sur données trimestrielles de l’économie française, décrivant une situation de concurrence monopolistique à la fois sur le marché des biens et sur celui du travail. Sur ce dernier existe un effet de persistance conforme à la théorie « insider-outsider ». Le modèle est bouclé par la prise en compte de la consommation des ménages (revenu permanent) ainsi que des dépenses publiques et des échanges extérieurs. Après avoir étudié les propriétés de long terme de la maquette et vérifié les conditions d’existence et d’unicité de trajectoires d’anticipations rationnelles au voisinage de la solution stationnaire, des multiplicateurs dynamiques correspondant à des chocs transitoires non anticipés sont calculés et interprétés.

Suggested Citation

  • Laffargue, Jean-Pierre & Malgrange, Pierre & Pujol, Thierry, 1992. "Une maquette trimestrielle de l’économie française avec anticipations rationnelles et concurrence monopolistique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 225-261, mars et j.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:68:y:1992:i:1:p:225-261
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    1. Collard, Fabrice & Ertz, Guy, 1996. "Stochastic Nominal Wage Contacts in a Cash-in-Advance Model," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 1997017, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), revised 00 Jul 1997.
    2. Zouhair Ait Benhamou, 2018. "A Steeper slope: the Laffer Tax Curve in Developing and Emerging Economies," Post-Print hal-02977714, HAL.
    3. Laffargue, Jean-Pierre, 1995. "Charges sociales, qualifications et emploi. étude à l'aide d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable de l'économie française," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9502, CEPREMAP.
    4. Boucekkine, Raouf & Juillard, Michel & Malgrange, Pierre, 1997. "Precision Performances of Terminal Conditions for Short Time Horizons Forward-Looking Systems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 10(2), pages 169-186, May.
    5. Antoine d'Autume & Alain Quinet, 2001. "Une maquette de moyen terme de l'économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 1-21.
    6. Jean-Olivier Hairault & Franck Portier, 1994. "Contraintes d'encaisses préalables et fluctuations économiques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(4), pages 1009-1044.

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