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Assessing China’s Merchandise Trade Data Using Mirror Statistics

Author

Listed:
  • Iris Day

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

Given their timeliness, Chinese trade data have the potential to provide a useful early read on conditions in the Australian and global traded sectors. However, the reliability of China’s merchandise trade data has come under scrutiny in recent years, particularly following reports of over-invoicing of exports to Hong Kong. This article considers the accuracy of China’s trade data by comparing the merchandise trade statistics with the reciprocal trade statistics or ‘mirror’ statistics published by its major trading partners (MTPs). In broad terms, growth in trade suggested by the mirror statistics aligns relatively closely with published Chinese data, though the Chinese figures are found to imply more volatile and somewhat higher growth in exports over the past three years than the corresponding trading partner data. While this largely reflects differences with mirror statistics for Hong Kong, it is also due to discrepancies with data from other economies, primarily in the Asian region.

Suggested Citation

  • Iris Day, 2015. "Assessing China’s Merchandise Trade Data Using Mirror Statistics," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 19-28, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbabul:dec2015-03
    as

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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2015/dec/pdf/bu-1215-3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2004. "Intermediaries in Entrepôt Trade: Hong Kong Re‐Exports of Chinese Goods," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 3-35, March.
    2. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Wang, Zhi, 2008. "Accounting for discrepancies in bilateral trade: The case of China, Hong Kong, and the United States," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 502-520, September.
    3. Harry X. Wu, 2007. "The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, Winter.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eden Hatzvi & Jessica Meredith & William Nixon, 2015. "Chinese Capital Flows and Capital Account Liberalisation," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 39-48, December.
    2. Iwona Markowicz & Pawel Baran, 2021. "Mirror data asymmetry in international trade by commodity group:the case of intra-Community trade," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(4), pages 889-905, December.

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