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Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy

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  • Cristina Manteu
  • Sara Serra

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to review developments in a number of uncertainty measures for Portugal and gauge their impact on macroeconomic developments in recent years, particularly on GDP, GFCF and private consumption. Our analysis shows that elevated uncertainty had a significant negative impact on economic activity during the financial and sovereign debt crises, while the unwinding in uncertainty associated with the conclusion of the economic and financial assistance programme in 2014 boosted the subsequent recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, . "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:bdpart:r201706
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    File URL: https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/ree201706_e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Working Papers w201709, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    9. Cristina Manteu & Sara Serra, 2017. "Impact of uncertainty measures on the Portuguese economy," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty: measurement and impact on the Spanish economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España;Economic Bulletin Homepage, issue 1/2017.
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