Le financement de la croissance par endettement extérieur
[fre] Le financement de la croissance par endettement extérieur Nous illustrons, à l'aide d'un modèle théorique simple avec générations imbriquées, les risques que peut présenter le financement de l'accumulation de capital par recours à l'investissement étranger ou à l'endettement extérieur. Nous examinons les effets du risque, des possibilités de retrait des investisseurs étrangers, de variations des taux d'intérêt, sur le niveau d'investissement et le bien-être. Nous analysons le danger d'effets pervers passant par le taux de change. Nous regardons finalement si l'évolution économique du Mexique durant les dernières années confirme ou non les enseignements du modèle théorique. [eng] Financing growth by foreign debt We illustrate, using a simple theoretical model with overlapping generations, the potential risks associated with the use of foreign investment or of foreign debt to finance growth. We examine the effects of risk, of the possible withdrawal of foreign investors, of changes in interest rates, on the level of investment and on welfare. We analyse if there is a danger of perverse effects channeled by exchange rate changes. We finally compare the economic evolution of Mexico during the recent years and the findings of the theoretical model.
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