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Les politiques de stabilisation des prix du coton en Afrique de la zone franc sont-elles condamnées?

  • Catherine Araujo-Bonjean
  • Jean-François Brun

[eng] ENG: price stabilization! volatility! price cycle! unit root tests with break! cotton! [fre] Cet article montre que les producteurs de coton en Afrique de la zone franc font face à une instabilité croissante des prix alors que les conditions d'implantation de véritables systèmes d'assurance contre le risque ne sont toujours pas réunies. Il montre également, au travers de l'analyse des propriétés statistiques de la série des prix à l'exportation du coton, que ces prix sont stationnâmes autour d'une tendance segmentée, avec des fluctuations cycliques d'environ quatre ans. On en déduit une règle de stabilisation des prix dont on attend une amélioration du bien-être des producteurs et notamment des plus pauvres.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie rurale.

Volume (Year): 266 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 80-90

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Handle: RePEc:prs:recoru:ecoru_0013-0559_2001_num_266_1_5278
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecoru.2001.5278
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  1. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  2. Deaton, A., 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Aftica," Papers 186, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  3. Catherine Araujo Bonjean, 1998. "Les marchés mondiaux des produits agricoles sont-ils efficients ?," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 8-15.
  4. Deaton, Angus & Miller, Ron, 1996. "International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 99-191, October.
  5. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Jean-Marc Boussard, 1999. "La stabilisation des prix aux producteurs agricoles : approches micro-économiques," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 40(160), pages 901-928.
  6. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  7. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN & Gérard CHAMBAS, 1997. "La taxation des exportations agricoles en Côte d'Ivoire après la dévaluation," Working Papers 199711, CERDI.
  8. Catherine ARAUJO BONJEAN, 1997. "Termes de l'échange : de la baisse tendancielle au chaos," Working Papers 199701, CERDI.
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