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Modèle de l'économie mondiale de blé

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  • L. Fulponi-Beglin

Abstract

[eng] A world wheat model. - A simple structural model of the wheat economy has been constructed to examine the possible impact of policies and external shocks on the evolution of the world wheat market. The model consists of a set of linear equations describing area harvested, yields, utilisation, stocks and trade for fifteen countries or country aggregates and solves for an indicator world price. Simulations over the historical period indicate that this price has been strongly dominated by the United States stock policies although it is sensitive to variations in Soviet Union import demand. [fre] Pour analyser l'impact possible de politiques et de chocs externes sur l'évolution du marché mondial du blé, un modèle structurel simple de l'économie du blé a été construit. Le modèle, composé d'équations linéaires, évalue les surfaces récoltées, les rendements, les utilisations intérieures, les stocks et les échanges pour quinze pays ou groupe de pays, ainsi qu'un indicateur du prix mondial: Des simulations sur la période historique indiquent que la formation de ce prix a été fortement dominée par la politique de stockage des Etats-Unis, tout en étant très sensible aux variations de la demande d'importation de l'URSS.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Fulponi-Beglin, 1986. "Modèle de l'économie mondiale de blé," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 174(1), pages 30-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recoru:ecoru_0013-0559_1986_num_174_1_3766
    DOI: 10.3406/ecoru.1986.3766
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecoru.1986.3766
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Houck, James P., 1976. "Analyzing the Impact of Government Programs on Crop Acreage," Technical Bulletins 158119, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Maury E. Bredahl & Leonardo Green, 1983. "Residual Supplier Model of Coarse Grains Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(4), pages 785-790.
    3. Dale Heien, 1977. "Price Determination Processes for Agricultural Sector Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(1), pages 126-132.
    4. Alexander H. Sarris & John Freebairn, 1983. "Endogenous Price Policies and International Wheat Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(2), pages 214-224.
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