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Transformation of the Polish, Czech and Hungarian Banking Systems: are there Systemic Fragilities?

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  • Thierry Apoteker

Abstract

[eng] A micro and macroeconomic analysis of the Polish, Hungarian and Czech banking sectors shows that weaknesses are not significant enough to be able to trigger full-fledged systemic crises : in all three countries, these industries have gone through a deep restructuring and consolidation process, supplemented by better prudential and supervision regulations and lower vulnerabilities to exogenous shocks. However, the comparison between the three countries highlights large differences : the Czech banking sector still appears more fragile, with likely difficulties if the European economy slows abruptly ; the strength of the Polish sector precludes any systemic shock, even if the sensitivity to potential currency depreciation remains high ; the weaknesses apparent in the Hungarian system is more related to the intensity of competition and high corporate leverage, but compensating factors reduce systemic risks. . JEL classifications : G20, G33, P20, P34 [fre] Transformation des systèmes bancaires polonais, tchèques et hongrois : subsiste-t-il des fragilités systémiques ?. Une analyse micro et macroéconomique des secteurs bancaires en Pologne, République tchèque et Hongrie montre que les fragilités bancaires ne sont plus de nature à provoquer des crises systémiques de grande ampleur, grâce aux améliorations de structure, au renforcement prudentiel et à une moindre vulnérabilité aux chocs exogènes. Néanmoins, une comparaison entre les situations respectives des trois pays révèle des différences importantes : le système bancaire tchèque paraît plus fragile, avec des difficultés possibles en cas de fort ralentissement économique en Europe ; le système polonais est davantage à l’abri des chocs systémiques, malgré une vulnérabilité à l’évolution du taux de change du zloty ; le système hongrois est fragilisé par les aspects concurrentiels et les effets de levier importants dans les entreprises, sans toutefois que ceci ne crée de risque systémique significatif. . Classification JEL : G20, G33, P20, P34

Suggested Citation

  • Thierry Apoteker, 2001. "Transformation of the Polish, Czech and Hungarian Banking Systems: are there Systemic Fragilities?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 415-426.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_1767-4603_2001_hos_6_1_4571
    DOI: 10.3406/ecofi.2001.4571
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2001.4571
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P34 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

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