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La valorisation des sociétés de la Nouvelle économie par les options réelles : vertiges et controverses d’une analogie

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  • Christophe Boucher

Abstract

[eng] Pricing new economy companies by real options : dizziness and dispute of an analogy. The pricing of the « New Economy » firms is complex and perilous because the traditional valuation models are inefficient when valuing firms with no positive earnings, no long history of performance, no comparable firms and strong uncertainty. The real options techniques are becoming a highly valued tool for pricing new economy firms. But according to Knight (1921), we suggest the valuation of these firms by real options coming under confusion between uncertainty and risk. When firms are in radical uncertainty, the use of real options may prove to be inefficient because these techniques rationalize overvaluation under the guise of a sophisticated and complex tool. . JEL classifications : G12, G13, G32, L86 [fre] L'évaluation des sociétés de la Nouvelle économie demeure complexe et périlleuse dans la mesure où les méthodes traditionnelles (DCF, multiples) s'avèrent inadéquates à valoriser ces sociétés caractérisées par l'absence de profit, l'absence d'historique, l'absence de benchmark et pour qui les sources d'incertitude sont multiples. La méthode des options réelles initialement développée afin de prendre en compte l'incertitude et l'irréversibilité des projets d'investissement est devenue un outil très prisé pour évaluer ces sociétés. Mais la valorisation des sociétés de la Nouvelle Économie par les options réelles relève d'une confusion entre l'incertitude et le risque au sens de Knight (1921). Si l'outil des options réelles s'avère précieux en situation de risque probabilisable sur des marchés déjà bien établis, son utilisation en situation d'incertitude radicale peut se montrer pernicieuse en rationalisant et en légitimant la surévaluation de sociétés derrière un outil mathématique sophistiqué et complexe. . Classification JEL : G12, G13, G32, L86

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Boucher, 2003. "La valorisation des sociétés de la Nouvelle économie par les options réelles : vertiges et controverses d’une analogie," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 72(3), pages 299-315.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:recofi:ecofi_0987-3368_2003_num_72_3_4885
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecofi.2003.4885
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Moon, Mark, 2001. "Rational Pricing of Internet Companies Revisited," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 7-25, November.
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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software

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