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Les déficits publics en Europe : suggestions pour un nouvel indicateur de l'orientation de la politique budgétaire

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  • Catherine Bruno

Abstract

[eng] Public Deficits in Europe: Suggestions for a New Fiscal Policy Trend Indicator . by Catherine Bruno . The growth in public deficits in Europe since 1970 may give the impression of widespread laxity. However, economic downturns such as the slump in the early 1990s generally lead to tax revenue losses and social transfers, which aggravate the budget deficit. Hence, the apparent "drift" in public balances is not always the result of deliberate government choices. An accurate measure of policy trends is therefore called for. In this study, we break down the primary budget balance into permanent and transitory components using a vector autoregressive model. The estimation is made for six European countries: Germany, Denmark, Spain, Italy, France and the United Kingdom. The fiscal policy trend in Germany and Denmark appears to be stable and could be said to obey fiscal rules. In the other four countries, especially in Italy and France, fiscal policy is conditional on the economy. [fre] Les déficits publics en Europe : suggestions pour un nouvel indicateur de l'orientation de la politique budgétaire par Catherine Bruno . L'évolution des déficits publics en Europe depuis 1970 peut donner l'impression d'un laxisme généralisé. Toutefois, la dégradation de la conjoncture , par exemple au début des années quatre-vingt-dix, se traduit en général par des pertes de recettes fiscales et par des transferts sociaux, ce qui creuse le déficit budgétaire. Ainsi, la " dérive " apparente des soldes publics ne relève pas toujours de choix délibérés de la part des autorités gouvernementales. Il est alors pertinent de donner une mesure précise de l'orientation de la politique. Dans cette étude, nous présentons une décomposition du solde budgétaire primaire en éléments permanent et transitoire à partir d'une modélisation vectorielle autorégressive. Une telle estimation est menée pour six pays européens : l'Allemagne, le Danemark, l'Espagne, l'Italie, la France et le Royaume-Uni. L'orientation de la politique budgétaire en Allemagne et au Danemark apparaît permanente : on parle alors de règle budgétaire. Dans les quatre autres pays, l'orientation de la politique budgétaire est soumise à la conjoncture, en particulier en Italie et en France.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Bruno, 2000. "Les déficits publics en Europe : suggestions pour un nouvel indicateur de l'orientation de la politique budgétaire," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 31-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_146_5_6126
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2000.6126
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2000.6126
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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1995. "Les déficits publics en Europe : causes, conséquences ou remèdes à la crise ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 54(1), pages 57-100.
    3. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
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