IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/ecoprv/ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_146_5_6126.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Les déficits publics en Europe : suggestions pour un nouvel indicateur de l'orientation de la politique budgétaire

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Bruno

Abstract

[eng] Public Deficits in Europe: Suggestions for a New Fiscal Policy Trend Indicator . by Catherine Bruno . The growth in public deficits in Europe since 1970 may give the impression of widespread laxity. However, economic downturns such as the slump in the early 1990s generally lead to tax revenue losses and social transfers, which aggravate the budget deficit. Hence, the apparent "drift" in public balances is not always the result of deliberate government choices. An accurate measure of policy trends is therefore called for. In this study, we break down the primary budget balance into permanent and transitory components using a vector autoregressive model. The estimation is made for six European countries: Germany, Denmark, Spain, Italy, France and the United Kingdom. The fiscal policy trend in Germany and Denmark appears to be stable and could be said to obey fiscal rules. In the other four countries, especially in Italy and France, fiscal policy is conditional on the economy. [fre] Les déficits publics en Europe : suggestions pour un nouvel indicateur de l'orientation de la politique budgétaire par Catherine Bruno . L'évolution des déficits publics en Europe depuis 1970 peut donner l'impression d'un laxisme généralisé. Toutefois, la dégradation de la conjoncture , par exemple au début des années quatre-vingt-dix, se traduit en général par des pertes de recettes fiscales et par des transferts sociaux, ce qui creuse le déficit budgétaire. Ainsi, la " dérive " apparente des soldes publics ne relève pas toujours de choix délibérés de la part des autorités gouvernementales. Il est alors pertinent de donner une mesure précise de l'orientation de la politique. Dans cette étude, nous présentons une décomposition du solde budgétaire primaire en éléments permanent et transitoire à partir d'une modélisation vectorielle autorégressive. Une telle estimation est menée pour six pays européens : l'Allemagne, le Danemark, l'Espagne, l'Italie, la France et le Royaume-Uni. L'orientation de la politique budgétaire en Allemagne et au Danemark apparaît permanente : on parle alors de règle budgétaire. Dans les quatre autres pays, l'orientation de la politique budgétaire est soumise à la conjoncture, en particulier en Italie et en France.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Bruno, 2000. "Les déficits publics en Europe : suggestions pour un nouvel indicateur de l'orientation de la politique budgétaire," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 146(5), pages 31-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_146_5_6126
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2000.6126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ecop.2000.6126
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_146_5_6126
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1995. "Les déficits publics en Europe : causes, conséquences ou remèdes à la crise ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 54(1), pages 57-100.
    2. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2000_num_146_5_6126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ecop .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.