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Spécification des préférences implicites en matière de politique économique française, 1981-1991

  • Robert Marti
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    [fre] Spécification des préférences implicites en matière de politique économique française, 1981-1991 par Robert Marti Parmi les grands pays industriels, la France est un de ceux qui ont les taux de chômage les plus élevés. Est-il vrai que l'objectif de plein-emploi a été prioritaire durant la dernière décennie ? Ce papier essaie d'estimer les préférences des responsables de politique économique. La technique du contrôle inverse est utilisée pour identifier la fonction objectif de politique et la modélisation VARX est employée pour d'écrire l'environnement économique. Finalement, il semble que la lutte contre le chômage ait été un objectif économique secondaire, loin derrière des préoccupations d'ordre monétaire. [eng] Implicit Preference Specification in French Economic Policy from 1981 to 1991 by Robert Marti France has some of the highest unemployment rates of all the leading industrialized countries. Has the goal of full employment really been a priority over the last decade? This paper endeavours to estimate economic policymakers' preferences. The inverse control technique is used to identify the policy goal function and VARX modeling is used to describe the economic environment. The resulting conclusion is that action to curb unemployment appears to have been a secondary economic goal far behind monetary concerns. [ger] Bestimmung der impliziten Prâferenzen in der franzôsischen Wirtschaftspolitik. 1981-1991 von Robert Marti Unter den groBen Industrielandern zahlt Frankreich zu denjenigen, die die hôchsten Arbeitslosenquoten aufweisen. Trifft es zu, daB das Ziel der Vollbeschàftigung im letzten Jahrzehnt vorrangig war? In diesem Artikel wird versucht, die Praf erenzen der wirtschaftspolitischen Verantwortlichen zu schàtzen. Die Technik der Umkehrkontrolle wird zur Identifizierung der Funktion der politischen Zielsetzung und die VARX-Modellierung zur Beschreibung des wirtschaftlichen Umfeldes benutzt. Letztendlich hat es den Anschein, daB die Bekampfung der Arbeitslosigkeit ein zweitrangiges Wirtschaftsziel darstellte und weit hinter den wahrungsbezogenen Anliegen kam. [spa] Especificacion de las preferencias implicitas en materia de politica econômica francesa 1981-1991 por Robert Marti Entre los grandes paises industriales, Francia es uno de los que posée las tasas mas elevadas de desempleo. Es cierto que el objetivo de pleno empleo ha sido prioritario durante la ultima década ? Este documento de trabajo trata de estimar las preferencias de los responsables de la politica econômica. La técnica de control inverso es utilizada para identificar a la funciôn objetivo de politica y la modelizaciôn VARX es empleada para describir el entorno econômico. Finalmente, pareciera que la lucha contra el desempleo haya sido un objetivo econômico secundario, lejos detrâs de las preocupaciones de orden monetario.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

    Volume (Year): 119 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 1-11

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1995_num_119_3_5726
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1995.5726
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    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    2. Carraro, Carlo, 1988. "The implicit objective function of Italian macroeconomic policy : 1963:1-1980:4," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 261-276, July.
    3. Ulrich Camen & Hans Genberg & Michael Salemi, 1991. "Asymmetric monetary policies? the case of Germany and France," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 219-236, October.
    4. Holbrook, Robert S, 1972. "Optimal Economic Policy and the Problem of Instrument Instability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 57-65, March.
    5. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    6. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
    7. Chow, Gregory C, 1973. "Problems of Economic Policy from the Viewpoint of Optimal Control," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(5), pages 825-37, December.
    8. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1989. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 95-131, April.
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