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A la recherche d'un âge d'or des marchés financiers : intégration et efficience au XVIIIe siècle

  • Marie-Thérèse Boyer
  • Ghislain Deleplace
  • Lucien Gillard
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    [fre] L'objet de l'article est de proposer une évaluation critique de plusieurs travaux récents relevant de la « New Economie History » ; ceux-ci visent à montrer que le xvin* siècle est une sorte d'âge d'or des marchés financiers, auxquels on peut appliquer les concepts d'intégration et d'efficience. Les résultats obtenus par ces études apparaissent cependant historiquement peu pertinents, économétriquement douteux et théoriquement non fondés. Ils conduisent à suggérer que certaines règles de fonctionnement des régimes monétaires et de change sont irréductibles à l'analyse traditionnelle des marchés. [eng] In this article, a critical evaluation of some recent studies in the field of the « New Economic History » is presented. These studies try to show that the eighteenth century is a kind of golden age for financial markets, to which the concepts of integration and efficiency may be applied. However, their results appear to be historically irrelevant, econometrically suspect and theoretically inconsistent. It is then suggested that some rules of the monetary and exchange regimes cannot be reduced to traditional market analysis.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Cahiers d'économie politique.

    Volume (Year): 20 (1992)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 33-65

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:caecpo:cep_0154-8344_1992_num_20_1_1123
    Note: DOI:10.3406/cep.1992.1123
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    1. Eagly, Robert V. & Smith, V. Kerry, 1976. "Domestic and International Integration of the London Money Market, 1731–1789," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(01), pages 198-212, March.
    2. Fogel, Robert William, 1962. "A Quantitative Approach to the Study of Railroads in American Economic Growth: A Report of Some Preliminary Findings," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 163-197, June.
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Schubert, Eric S., 1989. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange markets of London and Amsterdam during the 18th century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-20, January.
    5. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Use of Volatility Measures in Assessing Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 291-304, May.
    6. Baxter, Stephen B., 1976. "Comment on Paper by Eagly and Smith," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(01), pages 213-216, March.
    7. Officer, Lawrence H., 1985. "Integration in the American Foreign-Exchange Market, 1791–1900," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(03), pages 557-585, September.
    8. Neal, Larry, 1985. "Integration of International Capital Markets: Quantitative Evidence from the Eighteenth to Twentieth Centuries," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(02), pages 219-226, June.
    9. Mirowski, Philip, 1987. "What do markets do? : Efficiency tests of the 18th-century London stock market," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 107-129, April.
    10. Neal, Larry, 1987. "The Integration and Efficiency of the London and Amsterdam Stock Markets in the Eighteenth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(01), pages 97-115, March.
    11. Marie-Thérèse Boyer-Xambeu & Ghislain Deleplace & Lucien Gillard, 1990. "Vers une typologie des régimes monétaires," Cahiers d'Économie Politique, Programme National Persée, vol. 18(1), pages 31-60.
    12. Friedman, Milton, 1990. "The Crime of 1873," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1159-94, December.
    13. Officer, Lawrence H., 1983. "Dollar-Sterling Mint Parity and Exchange Rates, 1791–1834," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(03), pages 579-616, September.
    14. J. Sperling, 1962. "The International Payments Mechanism in the Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 14(3), pages 446-468, 04.
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