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Srovnání konvergence ekonomik ČR a vybraných zemí eurozóny na základě analýzy funkcí odezvy a nabídkových či poptávkových šoků
[Comparing the Convergence of Czech Economy with Selected Euro Zone Members Using Impulse-Response Functions and Supply and Demand Shocks]

Author

Listed:
  • Roman Hušek
  • Tomáš Formánek

Abstract

Our paper focuses on the analysis of supply and demand shocks and on the estimation of expected costs of introducing Euro currency into Czech Republic (CR). The analysis is based on the theory of optimal currency areas by Mundell (1961, 1973) and uses a macroeconomic approach formalized by Bayoumi (1994). VAR models and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition (Blanchard and Quah, 1989) are used in order to simulate aggregated macroeconomic impulse response dynamics and to isolate supply and demand shocks for further inspection. Based on the analysis performed we conclude that given current circumstances and persistent differences in symmetry of economic shocks in CR and selected Euro zone countries, the costs from introducing the Euro to CR (as measured by fluctuations of real macroeconomic variables) would be nonzero, however presumably not significantly different from equivalent costs experienced in Austria or Slovakia (i.e. not prohibitive or signifi cantly damaging).

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Hušek & Tomáš Formánek, 2011. "Srovnání konvergence ekonomik ČR a vybraných zemí eurozóny na základě analýzy funkcí odezvy a nabídkových či poptávkových šoků
    [Comparing the Convergence of Czech Economy with Selected Euro Zone Me
    ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(3), pages 291-309.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2011:y:2011:i:3:id:792:p:291-309
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 655-673.
    2. Magdalena Borys & Roman Horváth & Michal Franta, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, pages 419-443.
    3. Maria Demertzis & Andrew Hallett & Ole Rummel, 2000. "Is the European union a natural currency area, or is it held together by policy makers?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 657-679.
    4. Magdalena Borys & Roman Horváth & Michal Franta, 2009. "The effects of monetary policy in the Czech Republic: an empirical study," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, pages 419-443.
    5. Tamim Bayoumi, 1994. "A Formal Model of Optimum Currency Areas," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 537-554, December.
    6. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    7. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard & Dent, Warren, 1983. "Comparing alternative tests of causality in temporal systems : Analytic results and experimental evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 161-194.
    8. Zsolt Darvas, 2006. "Monetary Transmission in the New EU Member States: Evidence from Time-Varying Coefficient Vector Autoregression," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), pages 140-155.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    impulse-response analysis; optimum currency area; VAR model; macroeconomic convergence; supply and demand shocks; Blanchard-Quah decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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