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Makroekonomické veličiny a ceny akcií
[Macroeconomic variables and stock prices]

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Kodera
  • Václava Pánková

Abstract

A theoretical model describing a dependence of stock index on relevant macroeconomic variables is derived. Starting by two possible approaches, portfolio theory and heterogeneous agent hypothesis, the same model formulation resulted. An application was performed, using empirical data of the Prague Stock Exchange and of the Czech Republic economy. Working with the whole sample of observations, a significant relation of stock index and explanatory variables as for industrial production, exchange rate, interest rate, was hardly to be found. Studying an indication of three structural change points, this hypothesis was confirmed by a test and relating re-estimation was performed. A basic information about the problem of structural breaks is given.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Kodera & Václava Pánková, 2003. "Makroekonomické veličiny a ceny akcií [Macroeconomic variables and stock prices]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(6), pages 825-837.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpol:v:2003:y:2003:i:6:id:440
    DOI: 10.18267/j.polek.440
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Miloslav Vošvrda & Lukáš Vácha, 2003. "Heterogeneous agent model with memory and asset price behaviour," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(2), pages 155-168.
    2. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    portfolio theory; stock demand; stock index; heterogeneous agents hypothesis; structural break points;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

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