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Heterogeneous agent model with memory and asset price behaviour

Author

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  • Miloslav Vošvrda
  • Lukáš Vácha

Abstract

The efficient markets hypothesis provides a theoretical basis on which technical trading rules (TTRs) are rejected as a viable trading strategy. TTRs, providing a signal to the user when to buy or sell asset based on such price patterns, should not be useful for generating excess returns. Technical traders tend to put little faith in strict efficient markets hypothesis. This approach relies on heterogeneity in the agent information and subsequent decisions either as fundamentalists or as technical traders. Switching between the technical trader's and fundamentalist's strategy is a basis of the cycle behaviour. This event is analysed by the Brock and Hommes (BH) model. Moreover, the memory case is added to this model because BH model was the memory-less model. This branch consists of a behaviour analysis among fundamentalists and technical traders. Here is a basis for endogenous source of the real business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Miloslav Vošvrda & Lukáš Vácha, 2003. "Heterogeneous agent model with memory and asset price behaviour," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(2), pages 155-168.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2003:y:2003:i:2:id:212
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William A. Brock, 2001. "Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1491 edited by W. D. Dechert.
    2. Haltiwanger, John & Waldman, Michael, 1985. "Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 326-340, June.
    3. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    4. Barucci, Emilio, 2000. "Exponentially fading memory learning in forward-looking economic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1027-1046, June.
    5. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2003. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk, And Learning In A Simple Asset-Pricing Model With A Market Maker," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 503-536, September.
    6. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    7. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Zeeman, E. C., 1974. "On the unstable behaviour of stock exchanges," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-49, March.
    9. Gaunersdorfer, Andrea, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in a simple asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 799-831, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lukáš Vácha & Jozef Barunik & Miloslav Vošvrda, 2009. "Smart Agents and Sentiment in the Heterogeneous Agent Model," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(3), pages 209-219.
    2. Lukáš Vácha & Miloslav Vošvrda, 2006. "Wavelet Applications to Heterogeneous Agents Model," Working Papers IES 2006/21, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    3. Jan Kodera & Václava Pánková, 2003. "Makroekonomické veličiny a ceny akcií [Macroeconomic variables and stock prices]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2003(6), pages 825-837.
    4. Lukáš Vácha & Miloslav Vošvrda, 2007. "Wavelet Decomposition of the Financial Market," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(1), pages 38-54.
    5. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha & Miloslav Vosvrda, 2009. "Smart predictors in the heterogeneous agent model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 4(2), pages 163-172, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    efficient markets hypothesis; technical trading rules; fundamentalists; technical traders; chartists and contrarians; heterogeneous agent model with memory; asset price behaviour;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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