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Systemic Risk of the Global Banking System - An Agent-Based Network Model Approach

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  • Tomáš Klinger
  • Petr Teplý

Abstract

The global banking system proved significantly vulnerable to systemic risk during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. In this paper, we construct an agent-based network model of systemic risk to a banking system, and use it for stress-testing of several different regulatory measures. First, our simulations confirm that sufficient capital buffers in individual banks are crucial for protecting the stability of the whole system. Second, we show that the regulatory measures installed as preventive measures to ensure that the banks possess sufficient capital buffers have almost no positive effects on stability when the system is collapsing. Finally, we highlight various data deficiencies which prevent the researchers and regulators from fully understanding the complete range of systemic risk and make it difficult to devise effective and targeted regulatory measures at this time.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomáš Klinger & Petr Teplý, 2014. "Systemic Risk of the Global Banking System - An Agent-Based Network Model Approach," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(1), pages 24-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2014:y:2014:i:1:id:471:p:24-41
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
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    4. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
    5. Simon Wells, 2004. "Financial interlinkages in the United Kingdom's interbank market and the risk of contagion," Bank of England working papers 230, Bank of England.
    6. Shin, Hyun Song, 2008. "Risk and liquidity in a system context," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 315-329, July.
    7. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
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    9. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
    10. Jan Frait & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2011. "Financial Stability, Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 96-111 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    11. Jeannette Müller, 2006. "Interbank Credit Lines as a Channel of Contagion," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 37-60, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomas Klinger & Petr Teply, 2016. "The Nexus Between Systemic Risk and Sovereign Crises," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 50-69, February.
    2. Tomáš Klinger & Petr Teply, 2014. "Modelling Interconnections in the Global Financial System in the Light of Systemic Risk," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 8(1), pages 64-88.
    3. Tomas Pavlicek, 2014. "The Developmnet of the Self-employed Sector in the Czech Republic in the Years 2006 - 2010," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 8(1), pages 28-46.
    4. Guillermo Sierra Juárez, 2017. "Analysis of contagion in Mexican financial system combining Merton and random networks models," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(1), pages 44-63, Enero-Mar.
    5. Radek Halamka & Petr Teplý, . "The Effect of Ethics on Banks’ Financial Performance," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-15.
    6. David Tison, 2014. "Impact of Non-cooperative Oligopoly of the Banking System on Its Pro-cyclicality in the Czech Republic," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 8(1), pages 47-63.
    7. Tomas Klinger & Petr Teply, 2017. "Agent-Based Risk Assessment Model of the European Banking Network," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp602, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    8. Matteo Serri & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2016. "How the interbank market becomes systemically dangerous: an agent-based network model of financial distress propagation," Papers 1611.04311, arXiv.org.
    9. Janda, Karel & Kravtsov, Oleg, 2017. "Time-varying Effects of Public Debt on the Financial and Banking Development in the Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 77325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Karel Janda & Van Quang Tran & Pavel Zetek, 2015. "Faktory ovlivňující zapojení žen v mikrofinancích
      [The Factors Influencing the Participation of Women in Microfinance]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2015(3), pages 363-381.
    11. Jaroslav Vostatek, 2014. "Tax Treatment of Public and Private Pensions," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 8(1), pages 7-27.
    12. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests; Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 15/146, International Monetary Fund.
    13. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:461-472 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agent-based modelling; banking regulation; Basel III; capital; interbank network; systemic risk;

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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