Applicability of Hubbert model to global mining industry: Interpretations and insights

The Hubert’s model has been introduced in 1956 as a phenomenological description of the time evolution of US and world oil fields production. It has since then acquired a vast notoriety as a conceptual approach to resource depletion. It is often invoked nowadays in the context of the energy transition to question the limitations induced by the finitude of mineral stocks. Yet, its validity is often controversial despite its popularity. This paper offers a pedagogical introduction to the model, assesses its ability to describe the current evolution of 20 mining elements, and discusses the nature and robustness of conclusions drawn from Hubbert’s model considered either as a forecast or as a foresight tool. We also propose a novel way to represent graphically these conclusions as a “Hubbert’s map” which offers direct visualization of their main features.Author summary: Growth cannot be infinite on a finite planet. This aphorism certainly applies to the ever increasing extraction of raw materials from geological stocks. It often serves as rationale for the Hubbert model, which has been initially developed to account for the rise and fall of oil production. This model, and its celebrated peak, has been applied to a variety of mining elements and provides in many cases a satisfying description of past productions. However, the applicability of the model, and the validity of its projections, is questioned and debated. In this paper, we perform a characterization work which highlights the relevance and limitations of the Hubbert model. We propose a map as a graphical representation to discuss the nature of the model’s conclusions.