How urban residential land transfer policies affect the housing market—evidence from Beijing, China

The stable and healthy development of the residential market has always been one of the important tasks of the Government, and is of great significance to the maintenance of social stability and the well-being of residents. This paper utilizes the VAR model, the housing filtering model and the four-quadrant theoretical model to explore the comprehensive impact and mechanism of the land supply system on China’s housing market from the logical framework and institutional environment of land and housing. The results of the study show that the price of residential land supply has a positive effect on house prices, while the quantity of residential land supply has a negative effect on house prices; The land transfer patterns of “Restricted Land Price, on-site Lottery” and “Restricted Land Price, Restricted Selling Price and Compete for Quality” are conducive to the healthy development of the real estate market, but an excessive supply of land for leasing may push up the prices of commercial properties. Finally, in combination with China’s policy objective of “stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations”, it puts forward a number of policy recommendations to rationally control and guide the healthy development of real estate.