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The impact of African swine fever news sentiment on the Korean meat market

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  • Byung Min Soon
  • Wonseong Kim

Abstract

Our study analyzed the impact of African swine fever (ASF) news on the Korean meat market using sentiment analysis. We applied a neural network language model (NNLM) to generate a sentiment index indicating whether the news had a positive or negative impact on consumer expectations. We analyzed 24,143 news articles to estimate the impulse responses of meat price variables to sentiment shocks. Our study contributes significantly to agricultural economics as it applies NNLM to generate a sentiment index. The empirical results indicated that ASF news sentiment has a substantial impact on meat prices in Korea, and there is evidence of substitution effects among different types of meat. ASF news has a positive impact on the price of pork, negative effects on beef and chicken prices, and a greater impact on the price of chicken than beef. The findings imply that the effect of ASF news on demand outweighs its impact on supply in the pork market, whereas the effect on supply surpasses the effect on demand in the beef and chicken market. We believe our methods and results will inspire discussions among applied economists studying consumer behavior in this specific market and could encourage the application of big data analysis to the agricultural economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Byung Min Soon & Wonseong Kim, 2023. "The impact of African swine fever news sentiment on the Korean meat market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(6), pages 1-15, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0286520
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0286520
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Takashi Ishida & Noriko Ishikawa & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2010. "Impact of BSE and bird flu on consumers' meat demand in Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 49-56.
    3. Mark Doms & Norman J. Morin, 2004. "Consumer sentiment, the economy, and the news media," Working Paper Series 2004-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    5. Byung Min Soon & Wyatt Thompson, 2020. "Japanese beef trade impact from BSE using a time‐varying Armington model," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 385-401, June.
    6. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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