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Estimating the effects of legalizing recreational cannabis on newly incident cannabis use

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  • Barrett Wallace Montgomery
  • Meaghan H Roberts
  • Claire E Margerison
  • James C Anthony

Abstract

Liberalized state-level recreational cannabis policies in the United States (US) fostered important policy evaluations with a focus on epidemiological parameters such as proportions [e.g., active cannabis use prevalence; cannabis use disorder (CUD) prevalence]. This cannabis policy evaluation project adds novel evidence on a neglected parameter–namely, estimated occurrence of newly incident cannabis use for underage ( 21 years). We offer a tentative conclusion of public health importance: Legalized cannabis retail sales might be followed by the increased occurrence of cannabis onsets for older adults, but not for underage persons who cannot buy cannabis products in a retail outlet. Cannabis policy research does not yet qualify as a mature science. We argue that modeling newly incident cannabis use might be more informative than the modeling of prevalences when evaluating policy effects and provide evidence of the advantages of the event study model over regression methods that seek to adjust for confounding factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrett Wallace Montgomery & Meaghan H Roberts & Claire E Margerison & James C Anthony, 2022. "Estimating the effects of legalizing recreational cannabis on newly incident cannabis use," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(7), pages 1-13, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0271720
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0271720
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    5. Pacula, R.L. & Kilmer, B. & Wagenaar, A.C. & Chaloupka, F.J. & Caulkins, J.P., 2014. "Developing public health regulations for marijuana: Lessons from alcohol and tobacco," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1021-1028.
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