IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0249133.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 transmission and mortality rates at the county level in the United States considering socio-demographics, health indicators, mobility trends and health care infrastructure attributes

Author

Listed:
  • Tanmoy Bhowmik
  • Sudipta Dey Tirtha
  • Naveen Chandra Iraganaboina
  • Naveen Eluru

Abstract

Background: Several research efforts have evaluated the impact of various factors including a) socio-demographics, (b) health indicators, (c) mobility trends, and (d) health care infrastructure attributes on COVID-19 transmission and mortality rate. However, earlier research focused only on a subset of variable groups (predominantly one or two) that can contribute to the COVID-19 transmission/mortality rate. The current study effort is designed to remedy this by analyzing COVID-19 transmission/mortality rates considering a comprehensive set of factors in a unified framework. Methods and findings: We study two per capita dependent variables: (1) daily COVID-19 transmission rates and (2) total COVID-19 mortality rates. The first variable is modeled using a linear mixed model while the later dimension is analyzed using a linear regression approach. The model results are augmented with a sensitivity analysis to predict the impact of mobility restrictions at a county level. Several county level factors including proportion of African-Americans, income inequality, health indicators associated with Asthma, Cancer, HIV and heart disease, percentage of stay at home individuals, testing infrastructure and Intensive Care Unit capacity impact transmission and/or mortality rates. From the policy analysis, we find that enforcing a stay at home order that can ensure a 50% stay at home rate can result in a potential reduction of about 33% in daily cases. Conclusions: The model framework developed can be employed by government agencies to evaluate the influence of reduced mobility on transmission rates at a county level while accommodating for various county specific factors. Based on our policy analysis, the study findings support a county level stay at home order for regions currently experiencing a surge in transmission. The model framework can also be employed to identify vulnerable counties that need to be prioritized based on health indicators for current support and/or preferential vaccination plans (when available).

Suggested Citation

  • Tanmoy Bhowmik & Sudipta Dey Tirtha & Naveen Chandra Iraganaboina & Naveen Eluru, 2021. "A comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 transmission and mortality rates at the county level in the United States considering socio-demographics, health indicators, mobility trends and health care infras," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0249133
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0249133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249133
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249133&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0249133?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    2. George J. Borjas, 2020. "Demographic Determinants of Testing Incidence and COVID-19 Infections in New York City Neighborhoods," NBER Working Papers 26952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Victor Couture & Jonathan Dingel & Allison Green & Jessie Handbury & Kevin Williams, 2020. "Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-Time Application to COVID-19," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 35, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Mark J Siedner & Guy Harling & Zahra Reynolds & Rebecca F Gilbert & Sebastien Haneuse & Atheendar S Venkataramani & Alexander C Tsai, 2020. "Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic: Longitudinal pretest–posttest comparison group study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(8), pages 1-12, August.
    5. Faghih-Imani, Ahmadreza & Eluru, Naveen & El-Geneidy, Ahmed M. & Rabbat, Michael & Haq, Usama, 2014. "How land-use and urban form impact bicycle flows: evidence from the bicycle-sharing system (BIXI) in Montreal," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 306-314.
    6. Zindoga Mukandavire & Farai Nyabadza & Noble J Malunguza & Diego F Cuadros & Tinevimbo Shiri & Godfrey Musuka, 2020. "Quantifying early COVID-19 outbreak transmission in South Africa and exploring vaccine efficacy scenarios," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-11, July.
    7. Nuriye Melisa Bilgin, 2020. "Tracking COVID-19 Spread in Italy with Mobility Data," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2012, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dina Albassam & Mariam Nouh & Anette Hosoi, 2023. "The Effectiveness of Mobility Restrictions on Controlling the Spread of COVID-19 in a Resistant Population," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(7), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Stephanie Griggs & Christine Horvat Davey & Quiana Howard & Grant Pignatiello & Deepesh Duwadi, 2022. "Socioeconomic Deprivation, Sleep Duration, and Mental Health during the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-10, November.
    3. Costase Ndayishimiye & Christoph Sowada & Patrycja Dyjach & Agnieszka Stasiak & John Middleton & Henrique Lopes & Katarzyna Dubas-Jakóbczyk, 2022. "Associations between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Hospital Infrastructure Adaptation and Planning—A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-22, July.
    4. Dey Tirtha, Sudipta & Bhowmik, Tanmoy & Eluru, Naveen, 2022. "An airport level framework for examining the impact of COVID-19 on airline demand," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 169-181.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiao Chen & Hanwei Huang & Jiandong Ju & Ruoyan Sun & Jialiang Zhang, 2022. "Endogenous cross-region human mobility and pandemics," CEP Discussion Papers dp1860, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "From the lockdown to the new normal: individual mobility and local labor market characteristics following the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1517-1550, October.
    3. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jiaying Gu & Yao Luo & Pedro Mira, 2020. "A Dynamic Structural Model of Virus Diffusion and Network Production: A First Report," Working Papers tecipa-665, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    4. Umut Akovali & Kamil Yilmaz, 2020. "Polarized Politics of Pandemic Response and the Covid-19 Connectedness Across the U.S. States," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2019, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Rebecca Brough & Matthew Freedman & David C. Phillips, 2021. "Understanding socioeconomic disparities in travel behavior during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 753-774, September.
    6. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    7. Milena Almagro & Joshua Coven & Arpit Gupta & Angelo Orane-Hutchinson, 2020. "Racial Disparities in Frontline Workers and Housing Crowding during COVID-19: Evidence from Geolocation Data," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Thomas Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," CESifo Working Paper Series 8293, CESifo.
    9. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," NBER Working Papers 27007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ichino, Andrea & Favero, Carlo A. & Rustichini, Aldo, 2020. "Restarting the economy while saving lives under Covid-19," CEPR Discussion Papers 14664, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Brodeur, Abel & Clark, Andrew E. & Fleche, Sarah & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "COVID-19, lockdowns and well-being: Evidence from Google Trends," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    12. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Xuan Wang, 2023. "Support for small businesses amid COVID‐19," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(358), pages 612-652, April.
    13. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Graham, James & Ozbilgin, Murat, 2021. "Age, industry, and unemployment risk during a pandemic lockdown," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Brandily, Paul & Brébion, Clément & Briole, Simon & Khoury, Laura, 2021. "A poorly understood disease? The impact of COVID-19 on the income gradient in mortality over the course of the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    16. Mingyang Du & Lin Cheng, 2018. "Better Understanding the Characteristics and Influential Factors of Different Travel Patterns in Free-Floating Bike Sharing: Evidence from Nanjing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-14, April.
    17. Médard de Chardon, Cyrille & Caruso, Geoffrey & Thomas, Isabelle, 2017. "Bicycle sharing system ‘success’ determinants," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 202-214.
    18. Gopal K. Basak & Chandramauli Chakraborty & Pranab Kumar Das, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown Strategy in a Pandemic: An Exploratory Analysis for Covid-19," Papers 2109.02512, arXiv.org.
    19. Radzimski, Adam & Dzięcielski, Michał, 2021. "Exploring the relationship between bike-sharing and public transport in Poznań, Poland," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 189-202.
    20. Laura Alfaro & Anusha Chari & Andrew N. Greenland & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 26950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0249133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.