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The Effectiveness of Mobility Restrictions on Controlling the Spread of COVID-19 in a Resistant Population

Author

Listed:
  • Dina Albassam

    (King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST), Riyadh 11442, Saudi Arabia)

  • Mariam Nouh

    (King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST), Riyadh 11442, Saudi Arabia)

  • Anette Hosoi

    (Institute for Data, System and Society (IDSS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA 02139, USA)

Abstract

Human mobility plays an important role in the spread of COVID-19. Given this knowledge, countries implemented mobility-restricting policies. Concomitantly, as the pandemic progressed, population resistance to the virus increased via natural immunity and vaccination. We address the question: “What is the impact of mobility-restricting measures on a resistant population?” We consider two factors: different types of points of interest (POIs)—including transit stations, groceries and pharmacies, retail and recreation, workplaces, and parks—and the emergence of the Delta variant. We studied a group of 14 countries and estimated COVID-19 transmission based on the type of POI, the fraction of population resistance, and the presence of the Delta variant using a Pearson correlation between mobility and the growth rate of cases. We find that retail and recreation venues, transit stations, and workplaces are the POIs that benefit the most from mobility restrictions, mainly if the fraction of the population with resistance is below 25–30%. Groceries and pharmacies may benefit from mobility restrictions when the population resistance fraction is low, whereas in parks, there is little advantage to mobility-restricting measures. These results are consistent for both the original strain and the Delta variant; Omicron data were not included in this work.

Suggested Citation

  • Dina Albassam & Mariam Nouh & Anette Hosoi, 2023. "The Effectiveness of Mobility Restrictions on Controlling the Spread of COVID-19 in a Resistant Population," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(7), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:20:y:2023:i:7:p:5343-:d:1112385
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anish Agarwal & Abdullah Alomar & Arnab Sarker & Devavrat Shah & Dennis Shen & Cindy Yang, 2020. "Two Burning Questions on COVID-19: Did shutting down the economy help? Can we (partially) reopen the economy without risking the second wave?," Papers 2005.00072, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    2. Tanmoy Bhowmik & Sudipta Dey Tirtha & Naveen Chandra Iraganaboina & Naveen Eluru, 2021. "A comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 transmission and mortality rates at the county level in the United States considering socio-demographics, health indicators, mobility trends and health care infras," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Giulia Pullano & Laura Di Domenico & Chiara E. Sabbatini & Eugenio Valdano & Clément Turbelin & Marion Debin & Caroline Guerrisi & Charly Kengne-Kuetche & Cécile Souty & Thomas Hanslik & Thierry Blanc, 2021. "Underdetection of cases of COVID-19 in France threatens epidemic control," Nature, Nature, vol. 590(7844), pages 134-139, February.
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