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Cyclone exposure and mortality risk of children under 5 years old: An observational study in 34 low- and middle-income countries

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  • Yichen Guo
  • Yixiang Zhu
  • Cheng He
  • Ya Gao
  • Lu Zhou
  • Jovine Bachwenkizi
  • Haidong Kan
  • Renjie Chen

Abstract

Background: Climate change has exacerbated the frequency, intensity, and impacts of extreme weather events (EWEs), such as tropical cyclones. However, the increasing impact of tropical cyclones on child mortality, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), remains understudied. Methods and findings: Utilizing individual-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we conducted a sibling-matched case-control study to assess the impact of cyclone exposure over the past 3 months on under-five mortality. The study included 100,798 under-five deaths and 247,445 controls across 34 LMICs from 1993 to 2021. After adjusting for key meteorological and temporal confounders and maternal age, significant positive associations were observed between under-five deaths and cyclone exposure over the past 3 months before death (odds ratio [OR]: 1.038, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.002, 1.075; p = 0.041). Specifically, the strongest effects were observed in the first month before death (OR: 1.101, 95% CI: 1.039, 1.166; p

Suggested Citation

  • Yichen Guo & Yixiang Zhu & Cheng He & Ya Gao & Lu Zhou & Jovine Bachwenkizi & Haidong Kan & Renjie Chen, 2025. "Cyclone exposure and mortality risk of children under 5 years old: An observational study in 34 low- and middle-income countries," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 22(9), pages 1-18, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1004735
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004735
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    1. Persson, Torsten & Strömberg, David & Kudamatsu, Masayuki, 2012. "Weather and Infant Mortality in Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 9222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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