IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pgph00/0001607.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar

Author

Listed:
  • Julie D Pourtois
  • Krti Tallam
  • Isabel Jones
  • Elizabeth Hyde
  • Andrew J Chamberlin
  • Michelle V Evans
  • Felana A Ihantamalala
  • Laura F Cordier
  • Bénédicte R Razafinjato
  • Rado J L Rakotonanahary
  • Andritiana Tsirinomen’ny Aina
  • Patrick Soloniaina
  • Sahondraritera H Raholiarimanana
  • Celestin Razafinjato
  • Matthew H Bonds
  • Giulio A De Leo
  • Susanne H Sokolow
  • Andres Garchitorena

Abstract

While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie D Pourtois & Krti Tallam & Isabel Jones & Elizabeth Hyde & Andrew J Chamberlin & Michelle V Evans & Felana A Ihantamalala & Laura F Cordier & Bénédicte R Razafinjato & Rado J L Rakotonanahary & , 2023. "Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar," PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0001607
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zwane, Alix Peterson, 2007. "Does poverty constrain deforestation? Econometric evidence from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 330-349, September.
    2. Miyamoto, Motoe, 2020. "Poverty reduction saves forests sustainably: Lessons for deforestation policies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Felana Angella Ihantamalala & Vincent Herbreteau & Feno M. J. Rakotoarimanana & Jean Marius Rakotondramanga & Simon Cauchemez & Bienvenue Rahoilijaona & Gwenaëlle Pennober & Caroline O. Buckee & Chris, 2018. "Estimating sources and sinks of malaria parasites in Madagascar," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Robert W. Snow & Carlos A. Guerra & Abdisalan M. Noor & Hla Y. Myint & Simon I. Hay, 2005. "The global distribution of clinical episodes of Plasmodium falciparum malaria," Nature, Nature, vol. 434(7030), pages 214-217, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Veronesi, Marcella & Reutemann, Tim & Zabel, Astrid & Engel, Stefanie, 2015. "Designing REDD+ schemes when forest users are not forest landowners: Evidence from a survey-based experiment in Kenya," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 46-57.
    2. repec:hrv:hksfac:5341873 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bortolotti, Luca & Marson, Marta & Saccone, Donatella, 2024. "Food and the forest: A spatial analysis on the nexus between foreign direct investment and deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Jennifer M. Alix-Garcia & Elizabeth N. Shapiro & Katharine R. E. Sims, 2012. "Forest Conservation and Slippage: Evidence from Mexico’s National Payments for Ecosystem Services Program," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 88(4), pages 613-638.
    5. Démurger, Sylvie & Fournier, Martin, 2011. "Poverty and firewood consumption: A case study of rural households in northern China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 512-523.
    6. Alejandro López-Feldman, 2012. "Deforestación en México: Un análisis preliminar," Working Papers DTE 527, CIDE, División de Economía.
    7. Florence Burté & Biobele J Brown & Adebola E Orimadegun & Wasiu A Ajetunmobi & Francesca Battaglia & Barry K Ely & Nathaniel K Afolabi & Dimitrios Athanasakis & Francis Akinkunmi & Olayinka Kowobari &, 2012. "Severe Childhood Malaria Syndromes Defined by Plasma Proteome Profiles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Quiroga, Sonia & Suárez, Cristina & Hernanz, Virginia & Aguiño, José Evelio & Fernández-Manjarrés, Juan F., 2024. "Analysing post-conflict policies to enhance socio-ecological restoration among black communities in Southern Colombia: Cacao cropping as a win–win strategy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    9. David Dominguez & Luis de Juan del Villar & Odette Pantoja & Mario González-Rodríguez, 2022. "Forecasting Amazon Rain-Forest Deforestation Using a Hybrid Machine Learning Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Gabriel da Silva Medina & Claudio Wilson Soares Barbosa, 2023. "The Neglected Solutions: Local Farming Systems for Sustainable Development in the Amazon," World, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.
    11. Jennifer Alix-Garcia & Craig McIntosh & Katharine R. E. Sims & Jarrod R. Welch, 2013. "The Ecological Footprint of Poverty Alleviation: Evidence from Mexico's Oportunidades Program," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 417-435, May.
    12. Raizza Miranda & Markus Schwaninger & Alvimar Lucena & Ygor Logullo & Mischel Carmen N. Belderrain & Tereza C. M. B. Carvalho & Renato C. Sato, 2023. "Sustainable Amazon: A Systemic Inquiry with Native Populations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-24, May.
    13. repec:plo:pcbi00:1003312 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Samantha Rawlings, 2012. "Gender, race, and heterogeneous scarring and selection effects of epidemic malaria on human capital," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2012-01, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    15. repec:plo:pone00:0027462 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Zhang, Rui & Wei, Taoyuan & Glomsrød, Solveig & Shi, Qinghua, 2014. "Bioenergy consumption in rural China: Evidence from a survey in three provinces," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 136-145.
    17. Saira Baloch & Xiaofang Pei, 2019. "Elucidate the Renal Biochemical Factors in Patients with Malaria," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 23(4), pages 17640-17643, December.
    18. repec:plo:pone00:0004000 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Stefan Dongus & Constanze Pfeiffer & Emmy Metta & Selemani Mbuyita & Brigit Obrist, 2010. "Building multi†layered resilience in a malaria control programme in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 10(4), pages 309-324, October.
    20. repec:plo:pone00:0000707 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Peter W Gething & Anand P Patil & Simon I Hay, 2010. "Quantifying Aggregated Uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Prevalence and Populations at Risk via Efficient Space-Time Geostatistical Joint Simulation," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(4), pages 1-12, April.
    22. Laurens Manning & Moses Laman & Wendy A Davis & Timothy M E Davis, 2014. "Clinical Features and Outcome in Children with Severe Plasmodium falciparum Malaria: A Meta-Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(2), pages 1-11, February.
    23. Riyadh Mundher & Shamsul Abu Bakar & Suhardi Maulan & Mohd Johari Mohd Yusof & Syuhaily Osman & Ammar Al-Sharaa & Hangyu Gao, 2022. "Exploring Awareness and Public Perception towards the Importance of Visual Aesthetics for Preservation of Permanent Forest Reserve (PFR) in Malaysia," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, August.
    24. da Silva Medina, Gabriel & Pokorny, Benno & Campbell, Bruce, 2022. "Forest governance in the Amazon: Favoring the emergence of local management systems," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    25. Elahe Moradi & Alireza Sharifi, 2023. "Assessment of forest cover changes using multi-temporal Landsat observation," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1351-1360, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0001607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: globalpubhealth (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.