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Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar

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  • Julie D Pourtois
  • Krti Tallam
  • Isabel Jones
  • Elizabeth Hyde
  • Andrew J Chamberlin
  • Michelle V Evans
  • Felana A Ihantamalala
  • Laura F Cordier
  • Bénédicte R Razafinjato
  • Rado J L Rakotonanahary
  • Andritiana Tsirinomen’ny Aina
  • Patrick Soloniaina
  • Sahondraritera H Raholiarimanana
  • Celestin Razafinjato
  • Matthew H Bonds
  • Giulio A De Leo
  • Susanne H Sokolow
  • Andres Garchitorena

Abstract

While much progress has been achieved over the last decades, malaria surveillance and control remain a challenge in countries with limited health care access and resources. High-resolution predictions of malaria incidence using routine surveillance data could represent a powerful tool to health practitioners by targeting malaria control activities where and when they are most needed. Here, we investigate the predictors of spatio-temporal malaria dynamics in rural Madagascar, estimated from facility-based passive surveillance data. Specifically, this study integrates climate, land-use, and representative household survey data to explain and predict malaria dynamics at a high spatial resolution (i.e., by Fokontany, a cluster of villages) relevant to health care practitioners. Combining generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and path analyses, we found that socio-economic, land use and climatic variables are all important predictors of monthly malaria incidence at fine spatial scales, via both direct and indirect effects. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from our model were able to identify 58% of the Fokontany in the top quintile for malaria incidence and account for 77% of the variation in the Fokontany incidence rank. These results suggest that it is possible to build a predictive framework using environmental and social predictors that can be complementary to standard surveillance systems and help inform control strategies by field actors at local scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie D Pourtois & Krti Tallam & Isabel Jones & Elizabeth Hyde & Andrew J Chamberlin & Michelle V Evans & Felana A Ihantamalala & Laura F Cordier & Bénédicte R Razafinjato & Rado J L Rakotonanahary & , 2023. "Climatic, land-use and socio-economic factors can predict malaria dynamics at fine spatial scales relevant to local health actors: Evidence from rural Madagascar," PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0001607
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001607
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    References listed on IDEAS

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