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Forecasting Short Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings in the Istanbul Stock Exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Ramazan Aktas

    (Turkish Military Academy)

  • Mehmet Baha Karan

    (Hacettepe University)

  • Kürsat Aydogan

    (Bilkent University)

Abstract

Previous research on IPOs has identified several factors or issue characteristics that play a role in the level of short term underpricing of initial public offerings. Some of those issue features are the firm size, market trend, size of the offer, investment banker reputation, method of intermediation, stock price range and investor type. The objective of this study is to develop a model based on these features to forecast the short term performance of IPOs in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. To this end we divided our sample period into a model building subperiod and a testing subperiod. After identifying 9 issue features that are related to IPO short term pricing, we estimated our models using multiple regression, multiple discriminant and logit methods. The estimated models are then tested against the IPO data in the subsequent period between 1997-2000. The overall predictive ability of the forecasting models can be described as mediocre. In terms of actual abnormal returns obtained from investment strategies based on model predictions, only the logit models beat the outcome of naive strategies, albeit only marginally.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramazan Aktas & Mehmet Baha Karan & Kürsat Aydogan, 2003. "Forecasting Short Run Performance of Initial Public Offerings in the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 8(1), pages 69-85, Spring.
  • Handle: RePEc:pep:journl:v:8:y:2003:i:1:p:69-85
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ritter, Jay R, 1984. "The "Hot Issue" Market of 1980," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 215-240, April.
    2. Reena Aggarwal & Ricardo Leal & Leonardo Hernandez, 1993. "The Aftermarket Performance of Initial Public Offerings in Latin America," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(1), Spring.
    3. Muscarella, Chris J. & Vetsuypens, Michael R., 1989. "A simple test of Baron's model of IPO underpricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 125-135, September.
    4. Allen, Franklin & Faulhaber, Gerald R., 1989. "Signalling by underpricing in the IPO market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 303-323, August.
    5. Rock, Kevin, 1986. "Why new issues are underpriced," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 187-212.
    6. Brav, Alon & Gompers, Paul A, 1997. " Myth or Reality? The Long-Run Underperformance of Initial Public Offerings: Evidence from Venture and Nonventure Capital-Backed Companies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1791-1821, December.
    7. Keasey, K & Short, H, 1992. "The underpricing of initial public offerings: Some UK evidence," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 457-466, July.
    8. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aydin Yüksel & Asli Yüksel, 2006. "The Link between IPO Underpricing and Trading Volume: Evidence from the Istanbul Stock Exchange," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 11(3), pages 57-78, Fall.
    2. repec:eee:transa:v:103:y:2017:i:c:p:135-153 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Initial Public Offering; IPO; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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