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Cash Reserve and Venture Business Survival Probability

Author

Listed:
  • Sheen Liu

    (Youngstown State University)

  • Peter Woodlock

    (Youngstown State University)

  • Howard Qi

    (Michigan Tech University)

  • Yan Alice Xie

    (The University of Michigan-Dearborn)

Abstract

Both solid business ventures and those not on as firm a footing can fail because they do not manage risk properly. This study shows that start-ups with a positive NPV project can fail because of inadequate cash reserves. We apply the first-hitting time model to analyze the effect of a cash reserve on the business failure density function and the cumulative failure probability for a specific business venture. The analysis of this model shows that business ventures have a much higher survival probability when they reduce their future cash-flow volatility. It is also shown that when risks cannot be controlled or are too expensive to be controlled, then business ventures need to have adequate cash reserves if they are to reduce failure density and cumulative failure probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheen Liu & Peter Woodlock & Howard Qi & Yan Alice Xie, 2006. "Cash Reserve and Venture Business Survival Probability," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 11(3), pages 123-136, Fall.
  • Handle: RePEc:pep:journl:v:11:y:2006:i:3:p:123-136
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    2. Cressy, Robert, 2000. "Credit rationing or entrepreneurial risk aversion? An alternative explanation for the Evans and Jovanovic finding," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 235-240, February.
    3. Evans, David S & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1989. "An Estimated Model of Entrepreneurial Choice under Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 808-827, August.
    4. Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-674, August.
    5. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 2000. "Portfolio Choice and Asset Prices: The Importance of Entrepreneurial Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1163-1198, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ervin L. Black & F. Greg Burton & Peter M. Johnson, 2009. "Qualitative Factors as Determinants of Continued Success:An Examination of eBusiness Entrepreneurial Firms Using the NewVenture Template," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 13(2), pages 76-102, Fall.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash Reserve; Survival; Startup; New Venture;

    JEL classification:

    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

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