Effects of trial urban growth boundary delineation on land carrying capacity in China

China has suffered a significant urban sprawl in a rapidly urbanizing process. The trial urban growth boundary (UGB) delineation can help control urban sprawl, and these changes in urban growth have deep effects on land carrying capacity (LCC). This study characterizes the effects of trial UGB delineation on LCC in China. LCC which was subdivided into three components: economic carrying capacity, social carrying capacity, and ecological carrying capacity of land was assessed. Then the difference-in-difference model was further employed to quantify the associations between trial UGB delineation and LCC. The results showed trial UGB delineation has a significant negative impact on the economic carrying capacity of land (coefficients of DID are −0.057 and −0.059). Trial UGB delineation has significant positive impacts on the social carrying capacity (coefficients of DID are 0.051 and 0.031) and ecological carrying capacity of land (coefficients of DID are 0.030 and 0.027). Meanwhile, the effects of trial UGB delineation on the three components of LCC are heterogeneous in the eastern, central, and western regions. Besides, the heterogeneous effects of UGB delineation on the three components of LCC have existed adding dummy variables of urban hierarchy. Based on the findings, targeted policy recommendations include adopting regionally differentiated UGB adjustment mechanisms, integrating dynamic resource-carrying capacity evaluation into UGB delineation, and establishing full-cycle UGB management.