A GIS-Based Typological Interpretation of Cultivated Land Loss: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Tai’an Prefecture in the North China Plain

Loss of cultivated land has become a global issue that is especially critical in populous and rapidly urbanizing countries. However, knowledge in this field in general and its spatiality in particular have long been restrained in developing countries for the lack of accurate and reliable data. This study addresses this issue from a typological perspective by distinguishing the patterns and determinants of the conversion of cultivated land to nonagricultural use, nongrain use, and ecological land use. By using land use survey data from 2009 to 2019, and taking villages as the research units, the cultivated land loss in an ordinary prefecture, Tai’an, in the North China Plain was investigated from its temporal–spatial patterns, destination uses, and various driving factors. GIS methods such as spatial visualization, overlay analysis, and hotspot analysis were used to depict the geography of cultivated land loss in total and by cause. Multiple linear regression models were then developed to explore the roles of natural, locational, economic, social, and policy factors in predicting the overall and three types of cultivated land loss. The results show that (1) the cultivated land area in Tai’an Prefecture decreased by 1338.3 km 2 over the decade, which was 32.4% of that in 2009. Ecological use, rather than the widely blamed urban expansion, was the dominant reason, accounting for 55.6% of the total loss of cultivated land. (2) The hotspot areas of cultivated land loss were mainly distributed in the northeastern mountainous area and villages around cities and county seats in the southwest. The hotspot areas of nongrain and ecological conversion were mainly located around the central city, whereas those of nonagricultural conversion were the most extensive around county centers. (3) The factors were found to have heterogeneous effects on the three types of cultivated land loss. For example, land transfer is conducive to large-scale farming and is thus associated with a lower probability of nonagricultural conversion of cultivated land. However, it often facilitates ecological conversion of cultivated land. (4) The basic farmland protection policy was proven to be effective in preventing all three types of cultivated land loss. The above results indicate the great heterogeneity among the three types of cultivated land loss in their geography and determinants, demonstrating the necessity and significance of the typological perspective adopted to interpreting cultivated land loss in urbanizing and transitional societies. To some extent, only by reasonably distinguishing, spatially analyzing, and fully understanding the different types, various causes, and internal structure of cultivated land loss can we formulate more targeted and effective policies of cultivated land protection.