IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v67y2016i10d10.1057_jors.2016.20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A better project performance prediction model using fuzzy time series and data envelopment analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mostafa Salari

    (University of Calgary)

  • Homayoun Khamooshi

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

Earned value management (EVM) is a critical project management methodology that evaluates and predicts project performance from cost and schedule perspectives. The novel theoretical framework presented in this paper estimates future performance of a project based on the past performance data. The model benefits from a fuzzy time series forecasting model in the estimation process. Furthermore, fuzzy-based estimation is developed using linguistic terms to interpret different possible conditions of projects. Eventually, data envelopment analysis is applied to determine the superior model for forecasting of project performance. Multiple illustrative cases and simulated data have been used for comparative analysis and to illustrate the applicability of theoretical model to real situations. Contrary to EVM-based approach, which assumes the future performance is the same as the past, the proposed model can greatly assist project managers in more realistically assessing prospective performance of projects and thereby taking necessary and on-time appropriate actions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mostafa Salari & Homayoun Khamooshi, 2016. "A better project performance prediction model using fuzzy time series and data envelopment analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(10), pages 1274-1287, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:67:y:2016:i:10:d:10.1057_jors.2016.20
    DOI: 10.1057/jors.2016.20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/jors.2016.20
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/jors.2016.20?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lovell, C. A. Knox & Pastor, Jesus T., 1999. "Radial DEA models without inputs or without outputs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 46-51, October.
    2. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
    3. M Vanhoucke & S Vandevoorde, 2007. "A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(10), pages 1361-1374, October.
    4. Osama Moselhi & Ji Li & Sabah Alkass, 2004. "Web-based integrated project control system," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 35-46.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard E. Wendell & Timothy J. Lowe & Mike M. Gordon, 2023. "Dangers in using earned duration and other earned value metrics to measure a project’s schedule performance," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 31(2), pages 665-680, June.
    2. Sabahi, Sima & Parast, Mahour Mellat, 2020. "The impact of entrepreneurship orientation on project performance: A machine learning approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pishchulov, Grigory & Trautrims, Alexander & Chesney, Thomas & Gold, Stefan & Schwab, Leila, 2019. "The Voting Analytic Hierarchy Process revisited: A revised method with application to sustainable supplier selection," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 166-179.
    2. Sung Li & Long Zhao, 2015. "The competitiveness and development strategies of provinces in China: a data envelopment analysis approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 293-307, December.
    3. Heidi K. Edmonds & Julie E. Lovell & C. A. Knox Lovell, 2017. "A New Composite Index for Greenhouse Gases: Climate Science Meets Social Science," Resources, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.
    4. De Witte, Kristof & Schiltz, Fritz, 2018. "Measuring and explaining organizational effectiveness of school districts: Evidence from a robust and conditional Benefit-of-the-Doubt approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 1172-1181.
    5. Heidi K. Edmonds & C. A. Knox Lovell & Julie E. Lovell, 2022. "The Inequities of National Adaptation to Climate Change," Resources, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-26, December.
    6. Liu, W.B. & Zhang, D.Q. & Meng, W. & Li, X.X. & Xu, F., 2011. "A study of DEA models without explicit inputs," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 472-480, October.
    7. Lin, Rung-Chuan & Sir, Mustafa Y. & Pasupathy, Kalyan S., 2013. "Multi-objective simulation optimization using data envelopment analysis and genetic algorithm: Specific application to determining optimal resource levels in surgical services," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 881-892.
    8. Vincenzo Patrizii & Anna Pettini & Giuliano Resce, 2017. "The Cost of Well-Being," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 985-1010, September.
    9. Fernández-Macho, Javier & González, Pilar & Virto, Jorge, 2016. "An index to assess maritime importance in the European Atlantic economy," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 72-81.
    10. Lin, Ming-Ian & Lee, Yuan-Duen & Ho, Tsai-Neng, 2011. "Applying integrated DEA/AHP to evaluate the economic performance of local governments in China," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 129-140, March.
    11. Mohammad Pakkar, 2015. "An integrated approach based on DEA and AHP," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 153-169, January.
    12. Juan Aparicio & Magdalena Kapelko, 2019. "Enhancing the Measurement of Composite Indicators of Corporate Social Performance," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 807-826, July.
    13. Dimitrios Giokas & Nicolaos Eriotis & Ioannis Dokas, 2015. "Efficiency and productivity of the food and beverage listed firms in the pre-recession and recessionary periods in Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(19), pages 1927-1941, April.
    14. Fusco, Elisa & Vidoli, Francesco & Rogge, Nicky, 2020. "Spatial directional robust Benefit of the Doubt approach in presence of undesirable output: An application to Italian waste sector," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    15. Yu Shi & Anyu Yu & Huong Ngo Higgins & Joe Zhu, 2021. "Shared and unsplittable performance links in network DEA," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 507-528, August.
    16. Yang, Guo-liang & Yang, Jian-Bo & Xu, Dong-Ling & Khoveyni, Mohammad, 2017. "A three-stage hybrid approach for weight assignment in MADM," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 93-105.
    17. Mehdi Toloo & Esmaeil Keshavarz & Adel Hatami-Marbini, 2021. "An interval efficiency analysis with dual-role factors," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 43(1), pages 255-287, March.
    18. Yang, Xiaopeng & Zheng, Danheng & Sieminowski, Tammy & Paradi, Joseph C., 2015. "A dynamic benchmarking system for assessing the recovery of inpatients: Evidence from the neurorehabilitation process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(2), pages 582-591.
    19. Chen, Po-Chi & Yu, Ming-Miin & Shih, Jou-Chen & Chang, Ching-Cheng & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2019. "A reassessment of the Global Food Security Index by using a hierarchical data envelopment analysis approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(2), pages 687-698.
    20. Odeck, James, 2006. "Identifying traffic safety best practice: an application of DEA and Malmquist indices," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 28-40, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:67:y:2016:i:10:d:10.1057_jors.2016.20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.