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Dangers in using earned duration and other earned value metrics to measure a project’s schedule performance

Author

Listed:
  • Richard E. Wendell

    (University of Pittsburgh)

  • Timothy J. Lowe

    (The University of Iowa)

  • Mike M. Gordon

    (Virginia Tech)

Abstract

Earned value metrics are well known measures for assessing the schedule performance of projects. In response to deficiencies from using activity costs in traditional earned value metrics for evaluating a project’s schedule performance, earned duration management was proposed as an alternative measurement approach. In particular, earned duration management gives a new measure of a project’s schedule performance, called the Duration Performance Index, which purports to show how well the project is doing in achieving its target completion date. Herein, this paper demonstrates that, because of the confounding impact of parallel activities in a project, the Duration Performance Index can yield false positives and false negatives about a project’s schedule status. And it shows that claims made about the Index are at best guaranteed to be true for an arbitrarily small window of time. The paper concludes with the observation that earned value metrics for assessing a project’s schedule performance all suffer from the same confounding impact of parallel activities, as well as other issues; and that research on other approaches is needed.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard E. Wendell & Timothy J. Lowe & Mike M. Gordon, 2023. "Dangers in using earned duration and other earned value metrics to measure a project’s schedule performance," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 31(2), pages 665-680, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:cejnor:v:31:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10100-022-00830-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10100-022-00830-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mario Vanhoucke, 2014. "Integrated Project Management and Control," Management for Professionals, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-04331-9, June.
    2. M Vanhoucke & S Vandevoorde, 2007. "A simulation and evaluation of earned value metrics to forecast the project duration," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(10), pages 1361-1374, October.
    3. Elmaghraby, Salah E., 2000. "On criticality and sensitivity in activity networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 220-238, December.
    4. Mostafa Salari & Homayoun Khamooshi, 2016. "A better project performance prediction model using fuzzy time series and data envelopment analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 67(10), pages 1274-1287, October.
    5. Vanhoucke, Mario, 2011. "On the dynamic use of project performance and schedule risk information during projecttracking," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 416-426, August.
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