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What is the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy, and how might policy affect it?

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  • Jason Furman

    (Harvard Kennedy School of Government)

Abstract

The answer to the question “What will future potential growth be?” is as important as it is unknowable. This paper attempts to predict future U.S. potential output growth by combining what is unknown (future productivity growth, the performance of the labor market) with what is known (the evolution of the age structure of the population). It does so in two ways. First, this paper uses the historical experience of potential labor productivity growth, labor force participation, and weekly hours to simulate a range of outcomes for future potential growth—finding a 90% confidence interval that ranges from 0.7% annual growth to 3.0% annual growth, centered by construction around the Congressional Budget Office projection of 1.8% annual growth. Second, the paper examines a range of specific economic policies that the Trump Administration might pursue in terms of their impact on economic growth both in the short run and over the next decade—finding that an outer bound of these policies could be plus or minus 0.5 percentage point on the annual growth rate, but that these policies would most likely subtract a small amount from growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Furman, 2017. "What is the potential growth rate of the U.S. economy, and how might policy affect it?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 158-167, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:52:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1057_s11369-017-0041-5
    DOI: 10.1057/s11369-017-0041-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
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    6. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2016. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 22452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan A. Kapitonov, 2020. "Transformation of social environment in the application of alternative energy sources," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 7683-7700, December.

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