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The Dynamics of Crime Risk Perceptions

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  • Martin Salm
  • Ben Vollaard

Abstract

We study how residents form beliefs about the prevalence of crime in their neighborhood. We document the process of learning about local crime for a uniquely long period of 10 years after taking up residence. Our analysis is based on four successive waves of a large crime survey in the Netherlands matched with administrative register data for the complete history of places of residence between 1995 and 2011. We find that beliefs of residents are much more favorable shortly after their move into the neighborhood than they are longer after their move. The adjustments in beliefs only level off after many years. A large part of this adjustment in the years after a move can be explained by the accumulation of direct experiences with crime. Our findings show that victimization of crime is more than the outcome of a calculated risk; it is a costly form of learning about crime.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Salm & Ben Vollaard, 2021. "The Dynamics of Crime Risk Perceptions," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 23(2), pages 520-561.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:amlawe:v:23:y:2021:i:2:p:520-561.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/aler/ahab012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mirzaoglu, Gulbike, 2023. "Essays in economics of crime prevention and behavior under uncertainty," Other publications TiSEM 2365661f-9f4d-4511-ad2f-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    D81; K42;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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