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The demographics of household inflation perceptions and expectations

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  • Christina Leung

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

The Reserve Bank is interested in households’ inflation expectations, as they can provide useful insight into how inflation pressures have evolved in the economy. The Marketscope survey of household inflation expectations suggests that households consistently over-predict inflation. This article uses the Marketscope survey unit record data to find the possible drivers of the average level of over-prediction in household inflation expectations. Gaining a better understanding of how various demographic groups participate (or not, as the case may be) in the survey, and their different perceptions of inflation, enables the Reserve Bank to obtain a more accurate read of households’ true inflation perceptions. It discusses ways in which the Reserve Bank can improve households’ understanding of inflation developments in the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina Leung, 2009. "The demographics of household inflation perceptions and expectations," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 72, pages 34-42, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:june2009:5
    as

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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Bulletins/2009/2009jun72-2leung.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Doug Widdowson & Kim Hailwood, 2007. "Financial literacy and its role in promoting a sound financial system," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 70, June.
    2. Michael J. Lamla & Thomas Maag, 2012. "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1325-1350, October.
    3. David G. Blanchflower & Conall MacCoille, 2009. "The formation of inflation expectations: an empirical analysis for the UK," NBER Working Papers 15388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Satish Ranchhod, 2003. "The relationship between inflation expectations survey data and inflation," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 66, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lamla, Michael J. & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2019. "Central bank announcements: Big news for little people?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 21-38.
    2. Georganas, Sotiris & Healy, Paul J. & Li, Nan, 2014. "Frequency bias in consumers׳ perceptions of inflation: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 144-158.
    3. Xu, Yingying & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Su, Chi-Wei, 2016. "Modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 153-163.

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