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Modelling Of Voting Behaviour In Romania

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  • NICOLAE MARIUS JULA

    ("Nicolae Titulescu" University from Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

Romania has experienced a new electoral model, a model in which a gap between general elections and the Presidential election was introduced. Also in 2008 the election law was changed. The current design provides a uninominal voting system with a correction of the total number of seats by the total number of votes obtained by each party on the national level. In these circumstances, given the uninominal component of the vote for parliament, we analyze the significance of the signal given by the municipal elections, held in mid-year, over the results recorded in the general election (with 6 months lag). We also consider the relationship between regional distribution of votes in general elections and, respectively, Presidential elections (with one year lag). We use for this purpose regional data from elections in June 2008, from general elections in November that year, and the Presidential elections in November 2009. In building the econometric model used for electoral forecast we exploit both political variables and data concerning the state and dynamics of the economy, at the national and regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolae Marius Jula, 2012. "Modelling Of Voting Behaviour In Romania," New Trends in Modelling and Economic Forecast (MEF 2011), ROMANIAN ACADEMY – INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC FORECASTING;"Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 121-139, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntu:ntumef:vol1-iss1-12-121
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weingast, Barry R. & Wittman, Donald, 2008. "The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199548477.
    2. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521707404.
    3. Jula, Dorin & Jula, Nicolae Marius, 2009. "Regional Economic Voting In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 5-15, March.
    4. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521881029.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    electoral process; regional election; electoral models; economic voting; political business cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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