IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nsr/niesra/i10y2023p5-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Paula Bejarano Carbo
  • Hailey Low
  • Leaza McSorley
  • Stephen Millard
  • Patel, Urvish
  • Whyte, Kemar

Abstract

With King Charles crowned last weekend, it feels like a new era is on the horizon for the United Kingdom. Indeed, in the period between our Winter and Spring Outlooks the UK economic outlook has improved a little, with a recession in 2023 now looking less likely. But the UK economy is still facing the problems of sluggish growth and high inflation and while the Chancellor's Spring Budget of 15 March contained a number of policies that represented steps in the right direction, there was not the fundamental shift in the direction of public investment that will be needed if UK productivity growth is going to return to anything like pre global financial crisis rates. Nonetheless, there is some reason for optimism. As noted in our April GDP Tracker (Bejarano Carbo and Nowinska 2023), we now expect GDP to have grown by 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 and we expect GDP to grow a further 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2023. Looking further ahead, we expect sluggish growth in 2023 and 2024 of 0.3 and 0.6 per cent, respectively. At least to begin with, the third Carolean era is not going to herald a new dawn of high output growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Paula Bejarano Carbo & Hailey Low & Leaza McSorley & Stephen Millard & Patel, Urvish & Whyte, Kemar, 2023. "UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 10, pages 5-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesra:i:10:y:2023:p:5-39
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Spring-2023-UK-Economic-Outlook.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Vavra & Erik Hurst & Andreas Fuster & Martin Beraja, 2017. "Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 270, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Anna Stansbury & Dan Turner & Ed Balls, 2023. "Tackling the UK’s regional economic inequality: binding constraints and avenues for policy intervention," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3-4), pages 318-356, August.
    3. Philip McCann, 2020. "Perceptions of regional inequality and the geography of discontent: insights from the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 256-267, February.
    4. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Szendrei, Tibor, 2021. "Box E: Distributional impacts of Covid-19 and potential for policy intervention," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 0(4), pages 41-44.
    5. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Szendrei, Tibor, 2021. "Box E: Distributional impacts of Covid-19 and potential for policy intervention," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 4, pages 41-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco Sebastian, 2024. "Box A: Implications of the transition from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution pensions in the UK," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 29-33.
    2. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Pabst, Adrian & Caswell, Ben & Robyn Smith & Szendrei, Tibor, 2024. "Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 51-87.
    3. Pabst, Adrian, 2024. "Foreward," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 3-4.
    4. Niesr, 2024. "National Institute UK Economic Outlook Winter 2024 – Summary," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 5-50.
    5. Bill Wells, 2024. "Box B: Job boom or job bust? The effect of the pandemic on actual and measured job and employment growth," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 36-41.
    6. Niesr, 2024. "Forecast tables," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 88-96.
    7. Jack Shaw, 2024. "Box C: The state of local government finances," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 79-83.
    8. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Pabst, Adrian & Mosley, Max & Szendrei, Tibor, 2023. "Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 10, pages 44-64.
    9. Niesr, 2023. "Forecast tables," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 12, pages 77-85.
    10. Niesr, 2023. "National Institute UK Economic Outlook Autumn 2023," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 12, pages 5-40.
    11. Ana Carolina Garriga, 2023. "Box A: Public Confidence in the Bank of England," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 12, pages 16-22.
    12. Pabst, Adrian, 2023. "Foreward," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 12, pages 3-4.
    13. Adam Yousef, 2023. "Box B: Productivity Paradox: Challenges and Opportunities," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 12, pages 66-73.
    14. Martin Henning & Hans Westlund & Kerstin Enflo, 2023. "Urban–rural population changes and spatial inequalities in Sweden," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 878-892, May.
    15. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Neil Lee & Cornelius Lipp, 2021. "Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 457-481.
    16. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    17. Andres Rodriguez-Pose & Javier Terrero-Davila & Neil Lee, 2023. "Left-behind vs. unequal places: interpersonal inequality, economic decline, and the rise of populism in the US and Europe," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2306, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Mar 2023.
    18. Annie Tubadji & Thomas Colwill & Don Webber, 2021. "Voting with your feet or voting for Brexit: The tale of those stuck behind," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 247-277, April.
    19. Nina Boyarchenko & Valentin Haddad & Matthew Plosser, 2016. "The Federal Reserve and market confidence," Staff Reports 773, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Daria Denti, 2022. "Looking ahead in anger: The effects of foreign migration on youth resentment in England," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 578-603, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsr:niesra:i:10:y:2023:p:5-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library & Information Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.