Waves of commercial activity in Russia over the last millenn ium and evolution of entrepreneurship and its economic role

Imperception of general long-term economic patterns can lead to economic policy failures. Based on the review of scientific works since the 18th century and the analysis of archival data, the article proposes an approach to studying the evolutionary dynamics of commercial (business-like) activity based on assessing changes in the density of cities and small businesses. Five irregular spatio-temporal waves were discovered on the territory of modern Russia over the previous ten centuries. In the article, commercial activity in cities in the past (crafts, trades etc.) is considered as a primitive form of entrepreneurship. Frontier development of large territories required adventurous and entrepreneurial spirits. Although in Soviet times the dynamics of small enterprise density was asynchronous with the rates of economic growth, in general over the last century and half a positive relationship was observed between them, including that at the regional level in the new century. Many of the identified patterns were proved to be historically consistent: 1) entrepreneurship can be considered a persistent phenomenon, in particular, the density of small businesses exceeded pre-Soviet assessments, taking into account inaccuracy of data and evolution of economic agents; 2) the spread of entrepreneurship in space was according to the models of innovation diffusion: in particular, we distinguished relatively stable leading regions (cores), such as Moscow, St. Petersburg and the South of the Far East, and lagging ones (periphery); 3) at each stage, the long-term influence of several significant factors of business activity was revealed, such as geographical features of a territory, transport routes, socio-cultural conditions, institutional transformations (reforms), accumulation of human capital in cities and technological changes. Continuing the centuries-old scientific discussion on strategies to promote business activity, it is proposed to influence the characteristics identified above. It is essential to avoid situations of excessive monopolization of the economy and / or growth of the informal sector, since the weakening of one of the production factors (entrepreneurial capital) will have long-term negative effects for economic development. Thus, the restriction of entrepreneurial initiatives led to a decrease in the efficiency of the national economy and weakened the possibilities for its transformation in the late Soviet period; underestimation of the need to accumulate experience and root entrepreneurship intensified negative economic trends after accelerated liberalization in the 1990s. The beginning of the sixth wave will be likely associated with the spread of the digital economy and requires stimulation of online entrepreneurship amid further depopulation. The set of studies of the cyclical dynamics of social processes can be supplemented with a new parameter - business activity, but further cliometric studies are required, as well as verification for other countries.