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Modeling the Default Probabilities of Russian Banks: Extended Abillities

  • Karminsky, A.

    (Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia)

  • Kostrov, A.

    (Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia)

Using binary choice logistic regression with quasi panel data (1998-2011) to develop a probability of default model for Russian banks we have found that: 1) there is a quadratic interaction between bank's capital adequacy ratio and its default probability; 2) there is a negative relationship between the bank's monopoly power and its PD; 3) macroeconomic, institutional and time factors significantly improve the model quality. We believe that these results will be useful for national financial regulatory authorities as well as for commercial banks in risk management.

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Article provided by New Economic Association in its journal Journal of the New Economic Association.

Volume (Year): 17 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 64-86

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Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2013:i:17:p:64-86
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  1. Micco, Alejandro & Panizza, Ugo & Yañez, Monica, 2006. "Bank Ownership and Performance Does Politics Matter?," POLIS Working Papers 62, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
  2. Anatoly Peresetsky & Alexandr Karminsky & Sergei Golovan, 2011. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 297-334, November.
  3. Zuzana Fungacova & Laurent Weill, 2010. "How Market Power Influences Bank Failures Evidence from Russia," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2010-08, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
  4. Andrei Vernikov, 2011. "Government Banking in Russia: Magnitude and New Features," IWH Discussion Papers 13, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Reinout De Bock & Alexander Demyanets, 2012. "Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets; Determinants and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 12/71, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Benjamin M. Tabak & Giovana L. Craveiro & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2011. "Bank Efficiency and Default in Brazil: Causality Tests," Working Papers Series 253, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Anzoategui, Diego & Pería, María Soledad Martínez & Melecky, Martin, 2012. "Bank competition in Russia: An examination at different levels of aggregation," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 42-57.
  8. Claeys, Sophie & Schoors, Koen, 2007. "Bank supervision Russian style: Evidence of conflicts between micro- and macroprudential concerns," Working Paper Series 205, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  9. Пересецкий А.А., 2007. "Методы Оценки Вероятности Дефолта Банков," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 43(3), июль.
  10. Männasoo, Kadri & Mayes, David G., 2009. "Explaining bank distress in Eastern European transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-253, February.
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