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Modeling the Default Probabilities of Russian Banks: Extended Abillities

Author

Listed:
  • Karminsky, A.

    (Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia)

  • Kostrov, A.

    (Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

Using binary choice logistic regression with quasi panel data (1998-2011) to develop a probability of default model for Russian banks we have found that: 1) there is a quadratic interaction between bank's capital adequacy ratio and its default probability; 2) there is a negative relationship between the bank's monopoly power and its PD; 3) macroeconomic, institutional and time factors significantly improve the model quality. We believe that these results will be useful for national financial regulatory authorities as well as for commercial banks in risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Karminsky, A. & Kostrov, A., 2013. "Modeling the Default Probabilities of Russian Banks: Extended Abillities," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 64-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:nea:journl:y:2013:i:17:p:64-86
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Bekirova, Olga (Бекирова, Ольга), 2020. "Analysis of Bank Default Factors in 2013–2019 [Анализ Факторов Банковских Дефолтов 2013–2019 Годов]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 106-133, June.
    2. Lev Fomin, 2019. "Do Higher Interest Rates on Loans and Deposits and Advertising Spending Cuts Forecast Bank Failures? Evidence from Russia," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(2), pages 94-112, June.
    3. Bakaykina, Anna, 2015. "The estimation of the competitiveness of SME financing programs of development banks in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 40(4), pages 106-128.
    4. Karminsky, A. & Morgunov, A. & Bogdanov, P., 2015. "The Assessment of Default Probability for the Project Finance Transactions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 99-122.
    5. Bekirova, Olga & Zubarev, Andrey, 2023. "Determinants of risk, profitability and default probability of Russian banks," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 71, pages 20-38.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    probability of default (PD); banks; Russia; risk-management; internal ratings; IRB approach; Basel II;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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