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Extending energy system modelling to include extreme weather risks and application to hurricane events in Puerto Rico

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey A. Bennett

    (University of Virginia)

  • Claire N. Trevisan

    (University of Virginia)

  • Joseph F. DeCarolis

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Cecilio Ortiz-García

    (University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez)

  • Marla Pérez-Lugo

    (University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez)

  • Bevin T. Etienne

    (University of Virginia)

  • Andres F. Clarens

    (University of Virginia)

Abstract

Energy system optimization models often incorporate climate change impacts to examine different energy futures and draw insights that inform policy. However, increased risk of extreme weather events from climate change has proven more difficult to model. Here, we present an energy system optimization model that incorporates hurricane risks by combining storm probabilities with infrastructure fragility curves, and demonstrate its utility in the context of Puerto Rico, an island territory of the United States that had its energy system severely damaged by Hurricane Maria in 2017. The model assesses the potential to change grid architecture, fuel mix and grid hardening measures considering hurricane impacts as well as climate mitigation policies. When hurricane trends are included, 2040 electricity cost projections increase by 32% based on historical hurricane frequencies and by 82% for increased hurricane frequencies. Transitioning to renewables and natural gas reduces costs and emissions independent of climate mitigation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Bennett & Claire N. Trevisan & Joseph F. DeCarolis & Cecilio Ortiz-García & Marla Pérez-Lugo & Bevin T. Etienne & Andres F. Clarens, 2021. "Extending energy system modelling to include extreme weather risks and application to hurricane events in Puerto Rico," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 240-249, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natene:v:6:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1038_s41560-020-00758-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-00758-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Xu, Yongan & Duong, Duy & Xu, Hualong, 2023. "Attention! Predicting crude oil prices from the perspective of extreme weather," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    3. Perera, A.T.D. & Khayatian, F. & Eggimann, S. & Orehounig, K. & Halgamuge, Saman, 2022. "Quantifying the climate and human-system-driven uncertainties in energy planning by using GANs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    4. Hanif, Sarmad & Mukherjee, Monish & Poudel, Shiva & Yu, Min Gyung & Jinsiwale, Rohit A. & Hardy, Trevor D. & Reeve, Hayden M., 2023. "Analyzing at-scale distribution grid response to extreme temperatures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    5. Perera, A.T.D. & Hong, Tianzhen, 2023. "Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Sahoo, Somadutta & van Stralen, Joost N.P. & Zuidema, Christian & Sijm, Jos & Yamu, Claudia & Faaij, André, 2022. "Regionalization of a national integrated energy system model: A case study of the northern Netherlands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    7. Coles, Daniel & Wray, Bevan & Stevens, Rob & Crawford, Scott & Pennock, Shona & Miles, Jon, 2023. "Impacts of tidal stream power on energy system security: An Isle of Wight case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    8. Gururaghav Raman & Gurupraanesh Raman & Jimmy Chih-Hsien Peng, 2022. "Resilience of urban public electric vehicle charging infrastructure to flooding," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Zhang, Xiaogang & Jin, Chao & Zhang, Decheng & Zhang, Chengpeng & Ranjith, P.G. & Yuan, Yong, 2023. "Carbon dioxide flow behaviour in macro-scale bituminous coal: An experimental determination of the influence of effective stress," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    10. Ceferino, Luis & Lin, Ning & Xi, Dazhi, 2023. "Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    11. Wang, Zhaoqi & Zhang, Lu & Tang, Wei & Chen, Ying & Shen, Chen, 2022. "Equilibrium allocation strategy of multiple ESSs considering the economics and restoration capability in DNs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    12. Farhad Billimoria & Filiberto Fele & Iacopo Savelli & Thomas Morstyn & Malcolm McCulloch, 2023. "An Insurance Paradigm for Improving Power System Resilience via Distributed Investment," Papers 2302.01456, arXiv.org.

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