IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v229y2023ics0951832022005117.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Ceferino, Luis
  • Lin, Ning
  • Xi, Dazhi

Abstract

Solar generation can become a major and global source of clean energy by 2050. Nevertheless, few studies have assessed its resilience to extreme events, and none have used empirical data to characterize the fragility of solar panels. This paper develops fragility functions for rooftop and ground-mounted solar panels calibrated with solar panel structural performance data in the Caribbean for Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 and Hurricane Dorian in 2019. After estimating the hurricane wind fields, we follow a Bayesian approach to estimate fragility functions for rooftop and ground-mounted panels based on the observations supplemented with existing numerical studies on solar panel vulnerability. Next, we apply the developed fragility functions to assess failure rates due to hurricane hazards in Miami-Dade, Florida, highlighting that the panels perform below the code requirements, especially rooftop panels. We also illustrate that strength increases can improve the panels' structural performance effectively. However, strength increases by a factor of two still cannot meet the reliability stated in the code.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceferino, Luis & Lin, Ning & Xi, Dazhi, 2023. "Bayesian updating of solar panel fragility curves and implications of higher panel strength for solar generation resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:229:y:2023:i:c:s0951832022005117
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108896
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832022005117
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108896?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tran Thi Lan & Sopin Jirakiattikul & M. S. Chowdhury & Dilawer Ali & Le Duc Niem & Kuaanan Techato, 2020. "The Effect of Retail Electricity Price Levels on the FI Values of Smart-Grid Rooftop Solar Power Systems: A Case Study in the Central Highlands of Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, November.
    2. Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Kairui Feng, 2019. "Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Qin, Hao & Stewart, Mark G., 2020. "Construction defects and wind fragility assessment for metal roof failure: A Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    4. Zhiyu Jiang & Weifei Hu & Wenbin Dong & Zhen Gao & Zhengru Ren, 2017. "Structural Reliability Analysis of Wind Turbines: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Zhai, Chengwei & Chen, Thomas Ying-jeh & White, Anna Grace & Guikema, Seth David, 2021. "Power outage prediction for natural hazards using synthetic power distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    6. Winkler, James & Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo & Stein, Robert & Subramanian, Devika, 2010. "Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(4), pages 323-336.
    7. Jeffrey A. Bennett & Claire N. Trevisan & Joseph F. DeCarolis & Cecilio Ortiz-García & Marla Pérez-Lugo & Bevin T. Etienne & Andres F. Clarens, 2021. "Extending energy system modelling to include extreme weather risks and application to hurricane events in Puerto Rico," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 240-249, March.
    8. Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Michael Oppenheimer & Erik Vanmarcke, 2012. "Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 462-467, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Qian & Nie, Yaoqi & Du, Yanliang & Zhao, Weigang & Cao, Shujie, 2025. "Resilience-Based Restoration Model for Optimizing Corrosion Repair Strategies in Tunnel Lining," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    2. Luo Xu & Ning Lin & H. Vincent Poor & Dazhi Xi & A. T. D. Perera, 2025. "Quantifying cascading power outages during climate extremes considering renewable energy integration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Ma, Chenzhi & Gernay, Thomas, 2025. "Fragility curves for structural fire performance of various composite floor designs under natural fire," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 257(PA).
    4. Raziye Norouzi Masir & Mohammad Ataei & Farhang Sereshki, 2024. "A novel index for shearer system resilience in underground coal mines based on the operational environment," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 238(3), pages 475-501, June.
    5. Liu, Yushan & Li, Luyi & Chang, Zeming, 2023. "Efficient Bayesian model updating for dynamic systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    6. Wang, Yi Victor & Kim, Seung Hee & Kafatos, Menas C., 2023. "Verifying empirical predictive modeling of societal vulnerability to hazardous events: A Monte Carlo experimental approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    7. Ping, Menghao & Yan, Wang-Ji & Jia, Xinyu & Papadimitriou, Costas & Yuen, Ka-Veng, 2025. "Learning non-stationary model of prediction errors with hierarchical Bayesian modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Cerrai, Diego & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios & Wanik, David & Anagnostou, Emmanouil, 2022. "A Hybrid Physics-Based and Data-Driven Model for Power Distribution System Infrastructure Hardening and Outage Simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    2. Yi‐Ping Fang & Giovanni Sansavini & Enrico Zio, 2019. "An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(9), pages 1949-1969, September.
    3. Kairui Feng & Ning Lin & Avantika Gori & Dazhi Xi & Min Ouyang & Michael Oppenheimer, 2025. "Hurricane Ida’s blackout-heatwave compound risk in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Jacob Kim-Sherman & Lee Seltzer, 2024. "Clustering in Natural Disaster Damages," Staff Reports 1135, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Reza Marsooli & Ning Lin, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on hurricane flood hazards in Jamaica Bay, New York," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2153-2171, December.
    6. Kairui Feng & Min Ouyang & Ning Lin, 2022. "Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Qian Ke & Jiangshan Yin & Jeremy D. Bricker & Nicholas Savage & Erasmo Buonomo & Qinghua Ye & Paul Visser & Guangtao Dong & Shuai Wang & Zhan Tian & Laixiang Sun & Ralf Toumi & Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, 2021. "An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 671-703, October.
    8. Avantika Gori & Ning Lin & Dazhi Xi & Kerry Emanuel, 2022. "Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US extreme rainfall–surge hazard," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 171-178, February.
    9. Lu, Qin & Zhang, Wei, 2022. "Integrating dynamic Bayesian network and physics-based modeling for risk analysis of a time-dependent power distribution system during hurricanes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    10. Jasiūnas, Justinas & Heikkinen, Tatu & Lund, Peter D. & Láng-Ritter, Ilona, 2023. "Resilience of electric grid to extreme wind: Considering local details at national scale," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    11. Cuesta, Jokin & Leturiondo, Urko & Vidal, Yolanda & Pozo, Francesc, 2025. "A review of prognostics and health management techniques in wind energy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    12. Shen, Lijuan & Cassottana, Beatrice & Tang, Loon Ching, 2018. "Statistical trend tests for resilience of power systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 138-147.
    13. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    14. Yuki Miura & Huda Qureshi & Chanyang Ryoo & Philip C. Dinenis & Jiao Li & Kyle T. Mandli & George Deodatis & Daniel Bienstock & Heather Lazrus & Rebecca Morss, 2021. "A methodological framework for determining an optimal coastal protection strategy against storm surges and sea level rise," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1821-1843, June.
    15. Johnson, Caroline A. & Flage, Roger & Guikema, Seth D., 2021. "Feasibility study of PRA for critical infrastructure risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    16. Bon-Yong Koo & Dae-Yi Jung, 2019. "A Comparative Study on Primary Bearing Rating Life of a 5-MW Two-Blade Wind Turbine System Based on Two Different Control Domains," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-16, July.
    17. Hui Fang Yu & Md. Hasanuzzaman & Nasrudin Abd Rahim & Norridah Amin & Noriah Nor Adzman, 2022. "Global Challenges and Prospects of Photovoltaic Materials Disposal and Recycling: A Comprehensive Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-41, July.
    18. Byungdoo Kim & David L. Kay & Jonathon P. Schuldt, 2021. "Will I have to move because of climate change? Perceived likelihood of weather- or climate-related relocation among the US public," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 1-8, March.
    19. Lin, Yi-Kuei & Yeh, Cheng-Ta, 2011. "Maximal network reliability for a stochastic power transmission network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(10), pages 1332-1339.
    20. Junli Xu & Yuhong Zhang & Xianqing Lv & Qiang Liu, 2019. "Inversion of Wind-Stress Drag Coefficient in Simulating Storm Surges by Means of Regularization Technique," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-16, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:229:y:2023:i:c:s0951832022005117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.