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Hurricane Ida’s blackout-heatwave compound risk in a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Kairui Feng

    (Princeton University
    Tongji University
    Shanghai Innovation Institute)

  • Ning Lin

    (Princeton University)

  • Avantika Gori

    (Princeton University
    Rice University)

  • Dazhi Xi

    (Princeton University
    The University of Hong Kong)

  • Min Ouyang

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

  • Michael Oppenheimer

    (Princeton University
    Princeton University
    Princeton University)

Abstract

The emerging tropical cyclone (TC)-blackout-heatwave compound risk under climate change is not well understood. In this study, we employ projections of TCs, sea level rise, and heatwaves, in conjunction with power system resilience modeling, to evaluate historical and future TC-blackout-heatwave compound risk in Louisiana, US. We find that the return period for a compound event comparable to Hurricane Ida (2021), with approximately 35 million customer hours of simultaneous power outage and heatwave exposure in Louisiana, is around 278 years in the historical climate of 1980–2005. Under the SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario, this return period is projected to decrease to 16.2 years by 2070–2100, a ~17 times reduction. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, it decreases to 23.1 years, representing a ~12 times reduction. Heatwave intensification is the primary driver of this increased risk, reducing the return period by approximately 5 times under SSP5-8.5 and 3 times under SSP2-4.5. Increased TC activity is the second driver, reducing the return period by 40% and 34% under the respective scenarios. These findings enhance our understanding of compound climate hazards and inform climate adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kairui Feng & Ning Lin & Avantika Gori & Dazhi Xi & Min Ouyang & Michael Oppenheimer, 2025. "Hurricane Ida’s blackout-heatwave compound risk in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-59737-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59737-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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